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Arsenal Sarandi v Deportivo Camioneros

Arsenal Sarandi

2–1Full time

Deportivo Camioneros

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Arsenal Sarandi 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros ARSENAL SARANDI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal Sarandi win~~43%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.493

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal Sarandi win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal Sarandi 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–34–24
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal Sarandi v Deportivo Camioneros
26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' Deportivo Camioneros
28′Deportivo Camioneros are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 38–40–23
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Arsenal Sarandi win 39%)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Deportivo Camioneros
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Arsenal Sarandi
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Deportivo Camioneros
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Arsenal Sarandi win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Sarandi 0–0 Deportivo Camioneros
46′SECOND HALF Arsenal Sarandi 0–0 Deportivo Camioneros
49′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–49–20
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Deportivo Camioneros
54′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–18
57′Arsenal Sarandi find the net on 57′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Arsenal Sarandi 1–0 Deportivo Camioneros
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Arsenal Sarandi win: 43% at kick-off, 82% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Arsenal Sarandi win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 54%)
58′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–2
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 83–15–2
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Arsenal Sarandi win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Arsenal Sarandi
64′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′A goal for Arsenal Sarandi on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Arsenal Sarandi 2–0 Deportivo Camioneros
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Arsenal Sarandi win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Camioneros · On: N. Moyano · Off: F. Moyano
75′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Camioneros · On: G. Lopez · Off: P. Lopez
78′We said Arsenal Sarandi at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′Deportivo Camioneros score on 89′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
89′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Arsenal Sarandi 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros
FTFULL TIME Arsenal Sarandi 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros
FTArsenal Sarandi 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros · Arsenal Sarandi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal Sarandi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal Sarandi 43%, draw 33%, Deportivo Camioneros 24%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal Sarandi v Deportivo CamionerosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal Sarandi win43%

Draw33%

Deportivo Camioneros win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueEstadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal Sarandi

Deportivo Camioneros

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arsenal sarandi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market58%

Us43%

~~Market~~58%

We make Arsenal Sarandi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal Sarandi v Deportivo Camioneros~~1.20 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 73 v 67~~2 v 5

~~The market · Arsenal Sarandi win~~58% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal Sarandi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Sarandi win	43%	58%	−15
Draw	33%	26%	+7
Deportivo Camioneros win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Both teams to score	41%	42%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	62%	66%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	22%	−7
Arsenal Sarandi or draw	76%	84%	−8
Arsenal Sarandi clean sheet	44%	–	–
Deportivo Camioneros clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 9.2 4.5 1 14.1 14.7 5.3 2 9.5 7.7 3.2 3 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Sarandi down, Deportivo Camioneros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Sarandi at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Camioneros away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Arsenal Sarandi, 0.82 for Deportivo Camioneros. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

ARSENAL SARANDI

WLWLWD2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

DEPORTIVO CAMIONEROS

LLLLDW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17