Argentino Quilmes v Flandria prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Argentino Quilmes 0–1 Flandria ARGENTINO QUILMES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentino Quilmes win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentino Quilmes win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Argentino Quilmes 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–35–25
1′KICK-OFF Argentino Quilmes v Flandria
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Argentino Quilmes
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Argentino Quilmes win 36%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Argentino Quilmes
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Argentino Quilmes
45′HALF-TIME Argentino Quilmes 0–0 Flandria
46′SECOND HALF Argentino Quilmes 0–0 Flandria
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Argentino Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
51′We said Argentino Quilmes at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–52–19
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Argentino Quilmes
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Flandria
60′We said Argentino Quilmes at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Argentino Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
69′We said Argentino Quilmes at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
76′We said Argentino Quilmes at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
79′Flandria find the net on 79′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–89
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Argentino Quilmes 0–1 Flandria
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Argentino Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Flandria win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
80′We said Argentino Quilmes at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Argentino Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Flandria · On: M. Vasconcelo · Off: M. Lopez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Flandria · On: B. Gimenez · Off: M. Donato
89′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Flandria · On: F. Real · Off: D. Spitale
FTFULL TIME Argentino Quilmes 0–1 Flandria
FTArgentino Quilmes 0–1 Flandria · Argentino Quilmes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentino Quilmes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Argentino Quilmes 40%, draw 35%, Flandria 25%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Argentino Quilmes v FlandriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Argentino Quilmes win40%

Draw35%

Flandria win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueBarranca Quilmena stadium

Line-ups

Argentino Quilmes

Flandria

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Argentino Quilmes

Flandria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
19	Flandria	39	−13	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Argentino Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Yzaurralde

2 F. Cosciuc

3 J. Cettou

4 F. Filliol

5 M. Vega

6 E. Zarate

7 M. Ceccotti

8 S. Castano

9 M. Compagnucci

10 E. Torancio

11 J. Kruger

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. Cheppi

13 · A. Poza

14 · R. Barreto

15 · L. Escudero

16 · E. Diez

17 · A. Cecconato

18 · L. Filosa

19 · T. Gaitan

20 · J. Martinez

Flandria

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Ramos

4 M. Correa

2 A. Nalerio

6 M. Lopez

3 D. Spitale

5 B. Gonzalez

7 N. Diosquez

10 F. Costa

11 M. Lopez

8 M. Donato

9 A. Dulon

Coach · Arnaldo Sialle

Substitutes

12 · C. Morel

13 · F. Ruiz

14 · S. Negri

15 · F. Real

16 · M. Vasconcelo

17 · A. Casal

18 · M. Jaureguiberrey

19 · G. Calabria

20 · B. Gimenez

Our number · argentino quilmes winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Argentino Quilmes a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Argentino Quilmes v Flandria~~1.09 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 42~~16 v 19

~~The market · Argentino Quilmes win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Argentino Quilmes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Argentino Quilmes win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	35%	35%	0
Flandria win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Both teams to score	38%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	14%	−2
Argentino Quilmes or draw	75%	73%	+2
Argentino Quilmes clean sheet	46%	–	–
Flandria clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%

0123450 17.2 10.4 4.8 1 14.9 14.6 5.1 2 9.0 7.1 2.8 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Argentino Quilmes down, Flandria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Argentino Quilmes at home: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Flandria away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Argentino Quilmes, 0.79 for Flandria. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FLA 0–1 ARG · ARG 1–1 FLA · FLA 0–0 ARG · ARG 2–1 FLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

ARGENTINO QUILMES

LWDDDD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

FLANDRIA

LWLLDW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16