Argentino de Merlo v Sportivo Italiano prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Argentino de Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~34%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.690

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 34%.
1′Much as we predicted: Argentino de Merlo was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
30′Much as we predicted: Argentino de Merlo was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 31% now. 0–0 · 31–39–30
62′We said Argentino de Merlo at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–0 · 21–59–20
83′80′ and it is 0–2: Sportivo Italiano have scored. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Sportivo Italiano win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 46% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Sportivo Italiano win 26%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Argentino de Merlo
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 0% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 80' Argentino de Merlo 0–2 Sportivo Italiano · P. Caceres
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Argentino de Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano
FTFULL TIME Argentino de Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano
FTArgentino de Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Argentino de Merlo win34%

Draw34%

Sportivo Italiano win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Line-ups

Argentino de Merlo

Sportivo Italiano

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Argentino de Merlo

Sportivo Italiano

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
15	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Argentino de Merlo

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Oviedo

4 D. Ursino

2 C. Marcial

6 J. Cacace

3 V. Lopez

8 L. Romero

5 J. Rodriguez

10 G. Scisci

11 M. Gomez

9 D. E. Aguirre

7 F. Sellecchia

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Bardagi

13 · F. Lopez

14 · B. Maceri

15 · L. Paz Sierra

16 · C. Medina

17 · T. Candelaresi

18 · J. Ortiz

19 · A. Salvador

20 · T. Jerez

Sportivo Italiano

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Yordan

4 C. Bifiguer

2 C. Ordonez

6 E. Merzario

3 L. Fantino

8 F. Centurion

5 J. Rivero

10 F. Gomez

11 K. Gimenez

7 L. Laborda

9 P. Caceres

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Alastra

13 · F. Di Massimo

14 · P. Durante

15 · A. Daivez

16 · A. Guerra

17 · R. Fortino

18 · T. Hirigoyen

19 · J. De Cuadro

20 · J. D'Acquila

Our number · drawPublished 11 Oct 17:22

34% The market30%

Us34%

~~Market~~30%

We make the draw a 34% chance. The market has it at 30%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Argentino de Merlo win	34%	27%	+6
Draw	34%	30%	+4
Sportivo Italiano win	32%	42%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	22%	−7
Argentino de Merlo or draw	68%	58%	+10
Argentino de Merlo clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sportivo Italiano clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 11.5 6.6 2.2 1 11.9 15.1 6.6 2.2 2 6.9 6.8 3.4 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Argentino de Merlo down, Sportivo Italiano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,201 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 426 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Argentino de Merlo at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Italiano away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Argentino de Merlo, 0.99 for Sportivo Italiano. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 ARG · ARG 1–1 SPO · SPO 0–0 ARG · ARG 5–1 SPO

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

ARGENTINO DE MERLO

DLLWLL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

SPORTIVO ITALIANO

WWLDWW2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Flandria	39	−13	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16