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Argentino de Merlo v Deportivo Merlo

Argentino de Merlo

1–0Full time

Deportivo Merlo

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo ARGENTINO DE MERLO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentino de Merlo win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.437

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentino de Merlo win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Argentino de Merlo was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–22
1′KICK-OFF Argentino de Merlo v Deportivo Merlo
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Argentino de Merlo
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Argentino de Merlo win 40%)
43′Argentino de Merlo score on 42′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
43′We published Argentino de Merlo at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Argentino de Merlo win: 46% at kick-off, 80% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Argentino de Merlo win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 43%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo
46′SECOND HALF Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Argentino de Merlo
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Deportivo Merlo
65′We published Argentino de Merlo at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Merlo · On: R. Hernandez · Off: D. Maguicha
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Merlo · On: F. Valdez · Off: F. Benitez
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Argentino de Merlo win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
76′We published Argentino de Merlo at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Deportivo Merlo
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Argentino de Merlo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo Merlo · On: A. Diaz · Off: C. Gugenheim
84′We published Argentino de Merlo at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Argentino de Merlo win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Deportivo Merlo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Argentino de Merlo · On: F. Sellecchia · Off: D. E. Aguirre
91′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Argentino de Merlo · On: T. Jerez · Off: A. Salvador
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Deportivo Merlo
FTFULL TIME Argentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo
FTArgentino de Merlo 1–0 Deportivo Merlo · Argentino de Merlo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentino de Merlo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Argentino de Merlo 46%, draw 31%, Deportivo Merlo 22%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Argentino de Merlo v Deportivo MerloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Argentino de Merlo win46%

Draw31%

Deportivo Merlo win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueEstadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Argentino de Merlo

Deportivo Merlo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · argentino de merlo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Argentino de Merlo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Argentino de Merlo v Deportivo Merlo~~1.35 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 48~~17 v 13

~~The market · Argentino de Merlo win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Argentino de Merlo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Argentino de Merlo win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Deportivo Merlo win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	43%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	62%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Argentino de Merlo or draw	78%	78%	0
Argentino de Merlo clean sheet	42%	–	–
Deportivo Merlo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.7 7.7 4.1 1 12.9 14.3 5.5 2 9.9 8.5 3.7 3 4.5 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Argentino de Merlo down, Deportivo Merlo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Argentino de Merlo at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Merlo away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Argentino de Merlo, 0.87 for Deportivo Merlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–2 ARG · DEP 2–2 ARG · ARG 0–1 DEP · ARG 4–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept

ARGENTINO DE MERLO

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

DEPORTIVO MERLO

LWLDDW0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17