Velez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Velez SarsfieldDrawSan Lorenzo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Velez Sarsfield 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Velez Sarsfield are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velez Sarsfield 43%, draw 35%, San Lorenzo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Velez Sarsfield v San LorenzoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Velez Sarsfield win43%

Draw35%

San Lorenzo win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:15

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velez Sarsfield

San Lorenzo

14Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
9	San Lorenzo	14	−5	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velez sarsfield winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Velez Sarsfield a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo~~1.06 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 18~~5 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velez Sarsfield win	43%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
San Lorenzo win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Velez Sarsfield or draw	77%	–	–
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet	50%	–	–
San Lorenzo clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.6%

0123450 18.6 10.9 4.2 1 17.2 13.7 4.4 2 9.7 6.7 2.3 3 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velez Sarsfield down, San Lorenzo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,804 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 456 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velez Sarsfield at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Lorenzo away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Velez Sarsfield, 0.69 for San Lorenzo. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 VEL · SAN 1–0 VEL · VEL 0–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept

VELEZ SARSFIELD

WDWDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

SAN LORENZO

DLLWWD1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Defensa Y Justicia	14	+7	27
3	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
4	Lanus	14	+7	24
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
6	Newells Old Boys	14	+3	21
7	Gimnasia M.	14	+1	20
8	Independiente	13	−1	19
9	San Lorenzo	14	−5	18
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	+1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	−4	14
12	Platense	14	−6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	−3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	−7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	−9	9