Home › Football › Liga Profesional Argentina › Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.

Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.

Velez Sarsfield

1–0Full time

Gimnasia M.

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 18 OCT · Jose Amalfitani

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M. VELEZ SARSFIELD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Velez Sarsfield win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.332

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Velez Sarsfield win at 49%.
5′Much as we predicted: Velez Sarsfield was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
5′KICK-OFF Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.
10′9′: Facundo Lencioni on the scoresheet for Gimnasia M., making it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–52
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Gimnasia M. · Facundo Lencioni
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Gimnasia M. win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Velez Sarsfield win 22%)
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Facundo Lencioni · Gimnasia M.
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Velez Sarsfield win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Gimnasia M. win 21%)
28′We published Velez Sarsfield at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M.
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Velez Sarsfield
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Simón Escobar · Velez Sarsfield
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Velez Sarsfield win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Gimnasia M.
46′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–44–19
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gimnasia M. · On: Nahuel Barboza · Off: Esteban Fernández
46′SECOND HALF Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Gimnasia M.
52′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
53′Velez Sarsfield have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–49–18
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Fermin Antonini · Gimnasia M.
63′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–57–15
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Manuel Lanzini · Velez Sarsfield
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 28% now
68′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
70′Velez Sarsfield have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–65–13
74′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gimnasia M. · On: Blas Armoa Nunez · Off: Luciano César Cingolani
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gimnasia M. · On: Santiago Rodríguez · Off: Matías Vargas
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
79′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–8
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Velez Sarsfield · On: Thiago Aguirre · Off: Juan Cruz Policella
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Velez Sarsfield · On: Diego Valdés · Off: Simón Escobar
85′We said Velez Sarsfield at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–88–5
85′85′: Thiago Silvero on the scoresheet for Velez Sarsfield, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 95–4–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Luciano Paredes · Gimnasia M.
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gimnasia M. · On: Martín Úbeda · Off: Fermin Antonini
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 8% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M. · Thiago Silvero
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Velez Sarsfield win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
86′We published Velez Sarsfield at 49%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Velez Sarsfield · On: Claudio Baeza · Off: Manuel Lanzini
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gimnasia M. · On: I. Charparin · Off: Diego Mondino
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Thiago Aguirre · Velez Sarsfield
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Joaquin Garcia · Velez Sarsfield
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Velez Sarsfield · On: Dilan Godoy · Off: Ronaldo Martinez
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Velez Sarsfield · On: Luca Feler · Off: Lucas Robertone
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Velez Sarsfield win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M.
FTVelez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M. · Velez Sarsfield win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Velez Sarsfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velez Sarsfield 49%, draw 29%, Gimnasia M. 21%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Velez Sarsfield win49%

Draw29%

Gimnasia M. win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueJose Amalfitani

RefereeDario Herrera

Line-ups

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1

Gimnasia M.

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velez Sarsfield

Gimnasia M.

5Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Velez Sarsfield	12	+4	21
6	Gimnasia M.	12	+3	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1

1 T. Marchiori

4 J. Garcia

32 T. Silvero

16 L. Magallan

3 E. Gomez

29 R. Aliendro

8 L. Robertone

37 J. Policella

22 M. Lanzini

18 S. Escobar

77 R. Martinez

Coach · Guillermo Schelotto

Substitutes

23 · F. Sanguinetti

21 · J. Gordon

19 · L. Cristaldo

46 · U. Piedrabuena

10 · D. Valdes

5 · C. Baeza

48 · L. Feler

17 · A. Veron

35 · M. Arias

15 · D. Godoy

39 · T. Aguirre

30 · L. Piola

Gimnasia M.

4-2-3-1

23 C. Rigamonti

32 L. Paredes

2 D. Mondino

4 E. Munoz

3 M. Recalde

21 F. Antonini

30 E. Fernandez

7 L. Cingolani

8 M. Vargas

26 F. Lencioni

9 A. Modica

Coach · Ariel Broggi

Substitutes

31 · L. Petruchi

22 · J. Franco

42 · L. Carrera

25 · M. Ubeda

19 · J. Ceballos

5 · N. Barboza

33 · B. Andrada

27 · B. Armoa

11 · S. Rodriguez

15 · U. Sanchez

17 · I. Sabatini

35 · V. Simoni

Our number · velez sarsfield winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make Velez Sarsfield a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.~~1.41 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~4 v 6

~~The market · Velez Sarsfield win~~53% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Velez Sarsfield win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. The market has gone from 49% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velez Sarsfield win	49%	53%	−4
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Gimnasia M. win	21%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Velez Sarsfield or draw	79%	80%	−1
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet	44%	–	–
Gimnasia M. clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.0 7.8 3.7 1 14.0 13.4 5.1 2 10.6 8.6 3.6 3 5.0 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velez Sarsfield down, Gimnasia M. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,785 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velez Sarsfield at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia M. away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Velez Sarsfield, 0.83 for Gimnasia M.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GIM 3–2 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug

VELEZ SARSFIELD

DWDWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

GIMNASIA M.

WDLDLW3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	+6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	12	+4	21
5	Lanus	12	+6	20
6	Gimnasia M.	12	+3	20
7	Independiente	12	−1	18
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
9	Estudiantes L.P.	12	+2	14
10	San Lorenzo	12	−6	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11
13	Platense	12	−6	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	−8	9