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Union Santa Fe v Defensa Y Justicia

Union Santa Fe

0–2Full time

Defensa Y Justicia

Liga Profesional Argentina · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio 15 de Abril

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:16

Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia UNION SANTA FE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Santa Fe win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.784

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Santa Fe win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Union Santa Fe v Defensa Y Justicia
2′Little has changed for our model: Union Santa Fe 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Joaquin Mosqueira · Union Santa Fe
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Union Santa Fe 0–0 Defensa Y Justicia · Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Union Santa Fe 0–1 Defensa Y Justicia · Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia · Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia · César Pérez
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jeremías Lucco · Defensa Y Justicia
45′SECOND HALF Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia
46′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jeremías Lucco · Defensa Y Justicia
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Maximiliano Porcel · Off: César Pérez
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Leandro Fernández · Defensa Y Justicia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Union Santa Fe · On: Julián Palacios · Off: Mauro Luna Diale
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Union Santa Fe · On: Marcelo Estigarriba · Off: Erik Ramirez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Union Santa Fe · On: Marcelo Estigarriba · Off: Erik Ramirez
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Julián Palacios · Union Santa Fe
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Agustin Hausch · Off: Jeremías Lucco
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Tiziano Perrotta · Off: Leandro Fernández
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Tiziano Perrotta · Off: Leandro Fernández
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Defensa Y Justicia
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Santiago Sosa · Defensa Y Justicia
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Marcelo Estigarriba · Union Santa Fe
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Julian Lopez · Off: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Ezequiel Burdín · Off: David Barbona
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Union Santa Fe · On: Misael Aguirre · Off: Lucas Ayala
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Cristian Tarragona · Union Santa Fe
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Union Santa Fe · On: Bruno Pittón · Off: Tobias Javier Rubio
FTFULL TIME Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia
FTUnion Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia · Union Santa Fe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Santa Fe win43%

Draw29%

Defensa Y Justicia win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 01:45

Venue · Estadio 15 de Abril

Referee · Dario Herrera

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe

4-4-2

21 M. Mansilla

27 T. Rubio

4 M. Rocha

26 J. Luduena

18 L. Ayala

11 M. Luna Diale

8 E. Giaccone

17 J. Mosqueira

10 I. Malcorra

25 C. Tarragona

43 E. Ramirez

Coach · Leonardo Madelon

Substitutes

40 · L. Meuli

15 · J. Pintado

36 · M. Aimar

12 · B. Pitton

33 · I. Isla

23 · A. Solari

22 · B. Cuello

20 · J. Palacios

34 · M. Peresutti

19 · M. Estigarribia

38 · V. J. Cerrudo

31 · M. Aguirre

Defensa Y Justicia

4-2-3-1

1 M. Borgogno

28 V. Loza

29 D. Fernandez

21 D. Martinez

30 D. Dominguez

15 S. Sosa

8 C. Perez

26 J. Lucco

19 D. Barbona

24 J. Gutierrez

9 L. Fernandez

Coach · Julio Vaccari

Substitutes

36 · L. Amade

16 · A. Portillo

32 · N. Roselli

6 · E. Burdin

5 · J. Lopez

17 · A. Hausch

22 · M. Porcel

20 · N. Palavecino

40 · M. Rodriguez

27 · D. Blanco

7 · T. Perez

11 · T. Perrotta

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe

4-4-2

21 M. Mansilla

27 T. Rubio

4 M. Rocha

26 J. Luduena

18 L. Ayala

11 M. Luna Diale

8 E. Giaccone

17 J. Mosqueira

10 I. Malcorra

25 C. Tarragona

43 E. Ramirez

Coach · Leonardo Madelon

Substitutes

40 · L. Meuli

15 · J. Pintado

36 · M. Aimar

12 · B. Pitton

33 · I. Isla

23 · A. Solari

22 · B. Cuello

20 · J. Palacios

34 · M. Peresutti

19 · M. Estigarribia

38 · V. J. Cerrudo

31 · M. Aguirre

Defensa Y Justicia

4-2-3-1

1 M. Borgogno

28 V. Loza

29 D. Fernandez

21 D. Martinez

30 D. Dominguez

15 S. Sosa

8 C. Perez

26 J. Lucco

19 D. Barbona

24 J. Gutierrez

9 L. Fernandez

Coach · Julio Vaccari

Substitutes

36 · L. Amade

16 · A. Portillo

32 · N. Roselli

6 · E. Burdin

5 · J. Lopez

17 · A. Hausch

22 · M. Porcel

20 · N. Palavecino

40 · M. Rodriguez

27 · D. Blanco

7 · T. Perez

11 · T. Perrotta

Our number · union santa fe winPublished 10 Oct 01:30

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Union Santa Fe a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union santa fe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Santa Fe win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Defensa Y Justicia win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Union Santa Fe or draw	72%	72%	0
Union Santa Fe clean sheet	34%	–	–
Defensa Y Justicia clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.4 7.9 4.9 1 10.5 13.6 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Santa Fe down, Defensa Y Justicia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,767 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 419 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.89 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Santa Fe at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Defensa Y Justicia away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Union Santa Fe, 1.09 for Defensa Y Justicia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.89

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEF 2–0 UNI · UNI 3–0 DEF · DEF 0–0 UNI · DEF 0–0 UNI

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

UNION SANTA FE

WWWLLL3–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA

WWLWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
4	Boca Juniors	28	+19	51
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	29	−1	47
9	Instituto Cordoba	27	+9	46
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
16	Racing Club	29	−1	36
17	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
18	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
19	Sarmiento Junin	26	−6	35
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	27	−7	28
25	Atletico Tucuman	27	−5	27
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	27	−18	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11