Home › Football › Liga Profesional Argentina › Tigre v Banfield

Tigre v Banfield

Tigre

1–2Full time

Banfield

Liga Profesional Argentina · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:00

Tigre 1–2 Banfield TIGRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigre win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.966

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.031

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigre win at 49%.
0′KICK-OFF Tigre v Banfield
1′Much as we predicted: Tigre was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
2′Much as we predicted: Tigre was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–21
5′We said Tigre at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–50
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Tigre 0–1 Banfield
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Tigre 0–1 Banfield
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Banfield win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Tigre win 23%)
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Tigre win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Banfield win 21%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Tigre win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Banfield win 21%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Banfield win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Tigre win 23%)
7′Adrián Balboa scores for Banfield on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–27–51
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Tigre 1–1 Banfield · Adrián Balboa
10′10′ and it is 1–1: Jerónimo Domina on the scoresheet for Tigre. 1–1 · 48–30–21
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Tigre 1–1 Banfield · Jerónimo Domina
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Tigre win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Banfield win 21%)
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Banfield win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tigre win 23%)
11′10′ and it is 1–1: Jerónimo Domina on the scoresheet for Tigre. 1–1 · 48–31–21
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Tigre win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Banfield win 21%)
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Tigre win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Banfield win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tigre win 23%)
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Santiago Lopez Grobin · Tigre
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Santiago Lopez Grobin · Tigre
33′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Santiago Lopez Grobin · Tigre
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tigre 1–2 Banfield · Jerónimo Domina
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Tigre 1–2 Banfield · Tomas Adoryan
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Juan Luis Alfaro · Banfield
45′SECOND HALF Tigre 1–2 Banfield
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Jerónimo Domina · Tigre
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Banfield · On: Thomas Rodríguez · Off: Federico Medina
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Banfield · On: Brandon Oviedo · Off: Lisandro Geronimo Piñero
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tigre · On: Alfio Oviedo · Off: Santiago Lopez Grobin
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tigre · On: Manuel Fernández · Off: Valentín Moreno
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Tigre · On: Martin Garay · Off: Jerónimo Domina
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Banfield · On: Jeremías Acosta · Off: Adrián Balboa
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Banfield · On: Nehuén Paz · Off: David Zalazar
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Tomas Adoryan · Banfield
94′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Tigre · On: Juan Villalba · Off: Federico Alvarez
FTFULL TIME Tigre 1–2 Banfield
FTTigre 1–2 Banfield · Tigre win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tigre win49%

Draw30%

Banfield win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:15

Venue · Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna

Referee · Pablo Echavarria

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tigre

4-4-2

12 F. T. Zenobio

4 V. Moreno

2 J. Laso

20 A. Barrionuevo

24 F. Alvarez

10 J. Saralegui

27 S. Gonzalez

5 B. Leyes

22 S. Lopez

30 J. Domina

29 I. Russo

Coach · Diego Dabove

Substitutes

26 · L. Morales

17 · G. Soto

8 · M. Garay

32 · J. Villalba

23 · G. Requena

40 · L. Minniti

11 · T. Serrago

47 · A. Lezcano

19 · A. Oviedo

18 · M. Fernandez

25 · I. Subiabre

50 · I. Peluffo

Banfield

4-2-3-1

50 D. Rodriguez

4 J. L. Alfaro

2 S. Daniele

6 N. Meriano

27 I. Abraham

5 S. Esquivel

20 T. Adoryan

18 F. Medina

7 L. Pinero

40 D. Zalazar

9 A. Balboa

Coach · Pedro Troglio

Substitutes

25 · G. Santilli

3 · N. Paz

19 · L. Cano

37 · R. Malanca

13 · B. Oviedo

21 · L. Villegas

24 · S. Lopez

35 · N. Pais

30 · F. Anselmo

77 · T. Rodriguez

28 · M. Hernandez

16 · J. Acosta

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tigre

4-4-2

12 F. T. Zenobio

4 V. Moreno

2 J. Laso

20 A. Barrionuevo

24 F. Alvarez

10 J. Saralegui

27 S. Gonzalez

5 B. Leyes

22 S. Lopez

30 J. Domina

29 I. Russo

Coach · Diego Dabove

Substitutes

26 · L. Morales

17 · G. Soto

8 · M. Garay

32 · J. Villalba

23 · G. Requena

40 · L. Minniti

11 · T. Serrago

47 · A. Lezcano

19 · A. Oviedo

18 · M. Fernandez

25 · I. Subiabre

50 · I. Peluffo

Banfield

4-2-3-1

50 D. Rodriguez

4 J. L. Alfaro

2 S. Daniele

6 N. Meriano

27 I. Abraham

5 S. Esquivel

20 T. Adoryan

18 F. Medina

7 L. Pinero

40 D. Zalazar

9 A. Balboa

Coach · Pedro Troglio

Substitutes

25 · G. Santilli

3 · N. Paz

19 · L. Cano

37 · R. Malanca

13 · B. Oviedo

21 · L. Villegas

24 · S. Lopez

35 · N. Pais

30 · F. Anselmo

77 · T. Rodriguez

28 · M. Hernandez

16 · J. Acosta

Our number · tigre winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Tigre a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tigre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigre win	49%	54%	−5
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Banfield win	21%	19%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	44%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Tigre or draw	79%	81%	−2
Tigre clean sheet	46%	–	–
Banfield clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 12.9 8.1 3.6 1 14.8 13.4 4.9 2 10.8 8.4 3.3 3 4.9 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigre down, Banfield across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,770 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 422 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigre at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Banfield away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Tigre, 0.78 for Banfield. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 22:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–0 TIG · BAN 1–0 TIG · TIG 1–0 BAN · BAN 0–1 TIG

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

TIGRE

WDLLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

BANFIELD

LLLDDD1–2 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
16	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
17	Racing Club	29	−1	36
18	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
25	Banfield	27	−7	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11