Tigre v Atletico Tucuman prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 04:05

Tigre 0–1 Atletico Tucuman TIGRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigre win~~47%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.908

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigre win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tigre was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–23
1′KICK-OFF Tigre v Atletico Tucuman
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Santiago Gonzalez · Tigre
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Tigre win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Tigre win 39%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' César Leonel Vega · Atletico Tucuman
45′We said Tigre at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–45–20
45′HALF-TIME Tigre 0–0 Atletico Tucuman
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tigre · On: Juan Villalba · Off: Alan Barrionuevo
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Clever Domingo Ferreira Ñamandu · Atletico Tucuman
47′SECOND HALF Tigre 0–0 Atletico Tucuman
48′We said Tigre at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
58′We said Tigre at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Tigre win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez · Atletico Tucuman
66′We said Tigre at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–14
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tigre · On: Gonzalo Martínez · Off: Santiago Lopez Grobin
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tigre · On: Mauro Méndez · Off: Ignacio Russo
73′We said Tigre at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–17–81
73′Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez scores for Atletico Tucuman on 72′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–17–81
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Tigre 0–1 Atletico Tucuman
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Tigre win: 47% at kick-off, 2% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Atletico Tucuman win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 68%)
76′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez · Atletico Tucuman
77′A red card for Atletico Tucuman on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 1–14–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico Tucuman · On: Manuel Brondo · Off: Nicolás Laméndola
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tigre · On: Manuel Fernández · Off: Jabes Saralegui
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tigre · On: Ian Subiabre · Off: Federico Alvarez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico Tucuman · On: Gabriel Compagnucci · Off: Lautaro Godoy
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico Tucuman · On: Julián Fernández · Off: Iván Tesuri
94′Tigre have had 16 attempts to 11 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Tigre 0–1 Atletico Tucuman
FTTigre 0–1 Atletico Tucuman · Tigre win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tigre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigre 47%, draw 31%, Atletico Tucuman 23%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Tigre v Atletico TucumanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tigre win47%

Draw31%

Atletico Tucuman win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 01:15

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Jose Dellagiovanna

RefereeBrian Ferreyra

Line-ups

Tigre

4-4-2

Atletico Tucuman

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigre

Atletico Tucuman

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tigre

4-4-2

12 F. Zenobio

8 M. Garay

2 J. Laso

20 A. Barrionuevo

24 F. Álvarez

22 S. López

27 S. González

5 B. Leyes

10 J. Saralegui

30 J. Dómina

29 I. Russo

Coach · D. Dabove

Substitutes

28 · P. Martínez

21 · S. Medina

26 · L. Morales

4 · V. Moreno

33 · M. Méndez

19 · A. Oviedo

50 · I. Peluffo

23 · G. Requena

11 · T. Serrago

25 · Ian Martin Subiabre

32 · J. Villalba

18 · M. Fernández

Atletico Tucuman

4-1-4-1

1 L. Ingolotti

24 L. Di Plácido

26 C. Ferreira

36 Luciano Vallejo

32 J. Infante

19 L. Vega

11 R. Tesuri

31 L. Godoy

10 F. Nicola

23 N. Laméndola

18 R. Ruíz Rodríguez

Coach · J. Falcioni

Substitutes

14 · A. Canelo

30 · M. Brondo

28 · G. Compagnucci

25 · T. Durso

9 · L. Díaz

5 · J. Fernández

6 · G. Ferrari

27 · R. Granillo

8 · E. Ham

22 · F. Pimienta

17 · J. Rodríguez

3 · M. Villa

Our number · tigre winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market54%

Us47%

~~Market~~54%

We make Tigre a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigre v Atletico Tucuman~~1.31 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~11 v 10

~~The market · Tigre win~~54% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tigre win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigre win	47%	54%	−7
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Atletico Tucuman win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	41%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	18%	−1
Tigre or draw	77%	82%	−5
Tigre clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atletico Tucuman clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 13.0 8.7 4.1 1 14.3 13.8 5.3 2 10.0 8.3 3.4 3 4.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigre down, Atletico Tucuman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,799 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigre at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Tucuman away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Tigre, 0.83 for Atletico Tucuman. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 TIG · ATL 1–2 TIG · TIG 0–0 ATL · TIG 0–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept

TIGRE

LLLLLD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

ATLETICO TUCUMAN

WLLLDL2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	13	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8