Talleres Cordoba v Independiente prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 04:09

Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Independiente TALLERES CORDOBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Talleres Cordoba win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.682

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Talleres Cordoba win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Talleres Cordoba 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–31
1′KICK-OFF Talleres Cordoba v Independiente
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Nahuel Banegas · Independiente
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Talleres Cordoba win 34%)
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Talleres Cordoba win 32%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Talleres Cordoba win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Independiente
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Independiente · On: Josias Palais · Off: Matías Abaldo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Independiente · On: Iván Morales · Off: Chimy Ávila
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Talleres Cordoba · On: Lautaro Fabián Ortiz · Off: Valentin Depietri Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Talleres Cordoba · On: Diego Valoyes · Off: Federico Fattori Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Santiago Gabriel Montiel · Independiente
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Independiente · On: Lautaro Millán · Off: Luciano Cabral
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Talleres Cordoba · On: Franco Cristaldo · Off: Giovanni Baroni
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Talleres Cordoba · On: Alexandro Maidana · Off: Gabriel Baez
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Talleres Cordoba 0–1 Independiente
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Talleres Cordoba 0–1 Independiente · Nahuel Banegas
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Talleres Cordoba · On: Emiliano Miguel Chiavassa · Off: Rick Lima
92′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Independiente · On: Felipe Tempone · Off: Santiago Arias Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Independiente · On: Leonardo Godoy · Off: Mateo Pérez Curci Corrected
FTFULL TIME Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Independiente
FTTalleres Cordoba 0–0 Independiente · Talleres Cordoba win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Talleres Cordoba win38%

Draw33%

Independiente win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 01:30

VenueEstadio Mario Alberto Kempes

RefereeSebastian Zunino

Line-ups

Talleres Cordoba

4-2-3-1

Independiente

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Talleres Cordoba

Independiente

8Days since last match10

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Talleres Cordoba

4-2-3-1

32 E. Unsain

20 A. Schott

4 M. Catalan

6 R. D. Riquelme

23 G. Baez Corradi

8 F. Fattori

5 M. A. Galarza

37 Rick

10 G. Baroni

11 V. Depietri

49 V. Davila

Coach · Omar De Felippe

Substitutes

1 · S. Barbi

13 · V. Fascendini

44 · S. Fernandez

3 · A. Maidana

2 · T. Chamorro

31 · B. Trey

39 · L. Ortiz

19 · F. Cristaldo

15 · J. Sforza

26 · M. Caceres

7 · D. Valoyes

36 · E. Chiavassa

Independiente

4-2-3-1

33 R. Rey

4 S. Arias

36 S. Valdez

35 J. Arrayago

5 N. Banegas

16 M. Perez Curci

23 I. Marcone

7 S. Montiel

10 L. Cabral

19 M. Abaldo

6 C. Avila

Coach · Jadson Viera

Substitutes

77 · S. Mele

29 · L. Godoy

2 · F. Calderon

13 · J. Fedorco

20 · F. Cruz

32 · D. Martinez

14 · L. Millan

24 · J. Palais

9 · I. Morales

30 · T. Parmo

34 · F. Tempone

39 · R. Martino

Our number · talleres cordoba winPublished 12 Oct 01:31

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Talleres Cordoba a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · talleres cordoba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Talleres Cordoba win	38%	42%	−5
Draw	33%	30%	+2
Independiente win	30%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
Talleres Cordoba or draw	70%	73%	−2
Talleres Cordoba clean sheet	39%	–	–
Independiente clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 14.4 11.2 5.8 1 13.2 14.5 6.3 2 7.8 7.3 3.4 3 2.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Talleres Cordoba down, Independiente across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,775 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 427 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Talleres Cordoba at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Talleres Cordoba, 0.94 for Independiente. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~IND 1–2 TAL · IND 1–2 TAL · TAL 2–3 IND · IND 1–3 TAL

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

TALLERES CORDOBA

DDLWLL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

INDEPENDIENTE

DLWDWL0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	River Plate	31	+14	52
6	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	Racing Club	29	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	−29	11