Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sarmiento JuninDrawRosario Central

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Rosario Central 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosario Central are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento Junin 29%, draw 31%, Rosario Central 40%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento Junin v Rosario CentralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento Junin win29%

Draw31%

Rosario Central win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 00:15

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Eva Peron

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento Junin

Rosario Central

8Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosario central winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Rosario Central a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central~~0.98 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 28~~5 v 1

~~The market · Rosario Central win~~46% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rosario Central win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarmiento Junin win	29%	24%	+5
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Rosario Central win	40%	46%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Sarmiento Junin or draw	60%	54%	+6
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rosario Central clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.7 12.5 8.1 3.2 1 10.1 14.3 7.8 3.1 2 5.5 6.5 3.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento Junin down, Rosario Central across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,804 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 456 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarmiento Junin at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rosario Central away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Sarmiento Junin, 1.19 for Rosario Central. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ROS 2–1 SAR · SAR 0–1 ROS · ROS 1–0 SAR · ROS 4–2 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 13 Sept

SARMIENTO JUNIN

DLWDDL1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

ROSARIO CENTRAL

WWDWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	14	+11	28
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	14	−2	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	0	17
11	Banfield	14	−5	14
12	Tigre	14	−3	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8