Sarmiento Junin v River Plate prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 01:30

Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate RIVER PLATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said River Plate win~~45%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.963

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said River Plate win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: River Plate was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 26–28–46
1′KICK-OFF Sarmiento Junin v River Plate
14′Sarmiento Junin find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–25–19
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sarmiento Junin 1–0 River Plate
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Sarmiento Junin win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was River Plate win 19%)
16′We said River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 57–25–18
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
30′We said River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 60–26–14
41′River Plate have had 12.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–11
45′SECOND HALF Sarmiento Junin 1–0 River Plate
49′We said River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
55′We said River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 20–49–31
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 31% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sarmiento Junin win 20%)
58′Gonzalo Montiel scores for River Plate on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–52–29
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' River Plate
62′River Plate have had 16.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 73–22–5
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Pablo Daniel Magnin · Sarmiento Junin
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Sarmiento Junin win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
65′We said River Plate at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Julián Contrera · Sarmiento Junin
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sarmiento Junin · On: Elián Giménez · Off: Julian Mavilla
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sarmiento Junin · On: Jonathan Herrera · Off: Jhon Rentería
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Tobías Andrada · River Plate
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 20% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Sarmiento Junin win 13%)
72′Gonzalo Montiel scores for River Plate on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 13–67–20
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' River Plate · On: Lautaro Pereyra · Off: Tomás Ezequiel Galván
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' River Plate · On: Francisco Ortega · Off: Marcos Acuña
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' River Plate · On: Lautaro Pereyra · Off: Tomás Ezequiel Galván
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sarmiento Junin · On: Gaston Gonzalez · Off: Julián Contrera
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sarmiento Junin · On: Gaston Gonzalez · Off: Julián Contrera
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Fausto Vera · River Plate
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' River Plate · On: Lucas Beltran · Off: Sebastián Driussi
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Manuel García · Sarmiento Junin
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' River Plate win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
92′River Plate have had 20.0 attempts to 11.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–95–3
96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Sarmiento Junin · On: Agustín Nadruz · Off: Santiago Salle Corrected
96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Sarmiento Junin · On: Pablo Daniel Magnin · Off: Junior Marabel Corrected
96′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Sarmiento Junin · On: Agustín Nadruz · Off: Santiago Salle
96′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Sarmiento Junin · On: Pablo Daniel Magnin · Off: Junior Marabel
FTFULL TIME Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate
FTSarmiento Junin 1–1 River Plate · River Plate win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

River Plate are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento Junin 25%, draw 30%, River Plate 45%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento Junin v River PlateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento Junin win25%

Draw30%

River Plate win45%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 23:00

VenueEstadio Eva Peron

RefereeSebastian Zunino

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin

3-5-2

River Plate

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento Junin

River Plate

5Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	River Plate	16	10	29
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	-7	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Football Daily | Manchester City, Liverpool and the multibillion-pound mirageThe Guardian · 2 days ago · Manchester City, Liverpool, Boca Juniors, River Plate

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin

3-5-2

12 T. Ayala

44 R. Orihuela

2 J. Insaurralde

3 L. Suarez

8 S. Salle

5 M. Garcia

15 C. Zabala

21 J. Mavilla

19 J. Contrera

27 J. Marabel

10 J. Renteria

Coach · Facundo Sava

Substitutes

1 · I. Arboleda

77 · N. Pasquini

39 · J. Godoy

6 · G. Arturia

33 · G. Diaz

29 · T. Santamaria

23 · E. Gimenez

17 · A. Nadruz

35 · F. Alaggia

7 · P. Magnin

24 · J. Herrera

11 · G. Gonzalez

River Plate

4-1-3-2

41 S. Beltran

29 G. Montiel

28 L. Martinez Quarta

30 N. Otamendi

21 M. Acuna

15 Fausto Vera

50 T. Andrada

23 T. Almada

26 T. Galvan

10 A. Correa

9 S. Driussi

Coach · Leonardo Ponzio

Substitutes

33 · E. Centurion

20 · G. Gonzalez

2 · T. Ramirez

3 · F. Ortega

13 · L. Rivero

8 · M. Arambarri

6 · A. Moreno

24 · J. Meza

27 · S. Espindola

25 · L. Pereyra

19 · R. Borre

18 · L. Beltran

Our number · river plate winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

45% The market61%

Us45%

~~Market~~61%

We make River Plate a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarmiento Junin v River Plate~~0.94 – 1.35

~~Last six in Liga Profesional Argentina~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 29~~11 v 2

~~The market · River Plate win~~61% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · river plate win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 55% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarmiento Junin win	25%	14%	+11
Draw	30%	25%	+5
River Plate win	45%	61%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	43%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Sarmiento Junin or draw	55%	39%	+16
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet	26%	–	–
River Plate clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.4 12.5 9.2 4.2 1 8.5 13.8 8.5 3.9 2 4.5 6.0 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento Junin down, River Plate across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,782 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarmiento Junin at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). River Plate away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Sarmiento Junin, 1.35 for River Plate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RIV 2–0 SAR · RIV 0–1 SAR · SAR 1–1 RIV · RIV 1–0 SAR

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

SARMIENTO JUNIN

WLWDLW2–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1

RIVER PLATE

DWWWLW2–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	14	34
2	River Plate	16	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	0	26
7	Huracan	16	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	0	21
10	Tigre	16	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	-19	5