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Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central

Sarmiento Junin

1–1Full time

Barracas Central

Liga Profesional Argentina · MON 19 OCT · Estadio Eva Peron

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 01:30

Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas Central SARMIENTO JUNIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sarmiento Junin win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarmiento Junin win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sarmiento Junin 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–29
1′KICK-OFF Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central
14′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Barracas Central
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
15′Jhon Rentería scores for Sarmiento Junin on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′Barracas Central have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
36′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
43′12 shots for Barracas Central, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Nicolás Demartini · Barracas Central
45′HALF-TIME Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Barracas Central
45′SECOND HALF Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Barracas Central
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarmiento Junin · On: Gaston Gonzalez · Off: Jhon Rentería
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
57′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
59′16 shots for Barracas Central, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barracas Central · On: Gonzalo Maroni · Off: Rodrigo Bogarin
69′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sarmiento Junin · On: Manuel García · Off: Julian Mavilla
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sarmiento Junin · On: Ulises Adrian Gimenez · Off: Julián Contrera
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Barracas Central · On: Tomás Porra · Off: Ivan Tapia
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Barracas Central · On: Rodrigo Insua · Off: Elías Pereyra
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Junior Marabel · Sarmiento Junin
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
79′78′: Rodrigo Insua on the scoresheet for Barracas Central, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–79–9
79′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–1 · 11–79–9
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas Central · Rodrigo Insua (penalty)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Sarmiento Junin win 90%)
82′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sarmiento Junin · On: Jonathan Herrera · Off: Mauricio Martínez
86′20 shots for Barracas Central, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 6–90–5
87′We said Sarmiento Junin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Barracas Central
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Sarmiento Junin win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 90%)
88′Sarmiento Junin ahead on 87′ through Junior Marabel. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
89′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Sarmiento Junin
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Sarmiento Junin win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Sarmiento Junin win 98%)
94′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lucas·Suarez · Sarmiento Junin
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Barracas Central · On: Facundo Bruera · Off: Nicolas Orsini
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Barracas Central · On: Carlos Alfredo Arce · Off: Norberto Briasco
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Sarmiento Junin
98′Sarmiento Junin are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas Central
FTSarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas Central · Sarmiento Junin win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarmiento Junin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento Junin 39%, draw 32%, Barracas Central 29%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento Junin win39%

Draw32%

Barracas Central win29%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Eva Peron

RefereeDaniel Zamora

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin

3-5-2

Barracas Central

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento Junin

Barracas Central

5Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sarmiento Junin	12	+3	20
9	Barracas Central	12	+1	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin

3-5-2

12 T. Ayala

44 R. Orihuela

2 J. Insaurralde

3 L. Suárez

8 S. Salle

16 Mauricio Leonel Martínez

15 C. Zabala

21 J. Mavilla

19 J. Contrera

27 J. Marabel

10 Jhon Rentería

Coach · Facundo Sava

Substitutes

6 · G. Arturia

9 · D. Churín

5 · M. García

20 · U. Giménez

23 · E. Giménez

11 · G. González

24 · J. Herrera

7 · P. Magnín

17 · A. Nadruz

77 · N. Pasquini

29 · T. Santamaría

1 · I. Arboleda

Barracas Central

4-4-2

30 M. Miño

13 R. Barrios

15 Y. Rak

31 N. Demartini

17 E. Pereyra

28 R. Bogarín

35 E. Rolón

10 I. Tapia

24 Enzo Taborda

34 N. Orsini

11 N. Briasco

Coach · D. Ayude

Substitutes

77 · F. Bruera

19 · Carlos Arce

37 · G. Campi

2 · N. Capraro

1 · J. Espínola

16 · Ivan Guaraz

6 · R. Insúa

36 · Tomas Lavezzi

33 · G. Maroni

4 · D. Martínez

8 · T. Porra

23 · W. Rivera

Our number · sarmiento junin winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Sarmiento Junin a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central~~1.12 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 18~~6 v 9

~~The market · Sarmiento Junin win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarmiento Junin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarmiento Junin win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Barracas Central win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Both teams to score	42%	43%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−3
Sarmiento Junin or draw	71%	73%	−2
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet	40%	–	–
Barracas Central clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 14.1 10.9 5.6 1 13.3 14.4 6.2 2 8.1 7.4 3.5 3 3.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento Junin down, Barracas Central across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,795 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 447 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarmiento Junin at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Barracas Central away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Sarmiento Junin, 0.93 for Barracas Central. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–2 SAR · BAR 0–1 SAR · SAR 1–1 BAR · BAR 1–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 28 Aug

SARMIENTO JUNIN

LWDLWD1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

BARRACAS CENTRAL

DDDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	River Plate	13	+5	20
6	Sarmiento Junin	12	+3	20
7	Huracan	13	0	19
8	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
9	Barracas Central	12	+1	18
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8