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San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys
San LorenzoNewells Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Pedro Bidegain
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
San Lorenzo are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: San Lorenzo 43%, draw 34%, Newells Old Boys 22%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 34%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
San Lorenzo win43%Newells Old Boys win22%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:15
RoundClausura · matchday 14
VenueEstadio Pedro Bidegain
RefereeLuis Lobo Medina
Match timeline
All events
San LorenzoMINNewells Old BoysEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
San Lorenzo
Newells Old Boys
Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina
Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026 · Clausura - Group APositions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 13 | −5 | 17 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make San Lorenzo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo win | 43% | 37% | +6 |
| Draw | 34% | 34% | 0 |
| Newells Old Boys win | 22% | 29% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 33% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| San Lorenzo or draw | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Newells Old Boys clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept
SAN LORENZO
NEWELLS OLD BOYS
The table
2026 · Clausura - Group A| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Cordoba | 13 | +10 | 29 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 3 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Lanus | 13 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |  Gimnasia M. | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 8 |  Independiente | 13 | −1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 13 | −5 | 17 |
| 10 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Union Santa Fe | 13 | −4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Platense | 14 | −6 | 14 |
| 13 |  Deportivo Riestra | 13 | −3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 13 | −7 | 10 |
| 15 |  Talleres Cordoba | 13 | −8 | 9 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.