San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo Riestra DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.602

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.580

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 38–36–26
40′We published the draw at 38%. Our model now makes it 51%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
45′We published the draw at 38%. Our model now makes it 54%. 0–0 · 27–54–19
50′We published the draw at 38%. Our model now makes it 57%. 0–0 · 25–57–18
55′We published the draw at 38%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 23–60–17
61′We published the draw at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 20–65–15
67′67′ and it is 1–0: Teo Rodríguez Pagano on the scoresheet for San Lorenzo. 1–0 · 87–12–1
71′We said the draw at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
74′We said the draw at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
77′Goals are coming at about the 1.5 we expected. 1–0 · 92–8–0
86′We said the draw at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 58% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was San Lorenzo win 24%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' San Lorenzo · On: Ezequiel Herrera · Off: Rodrigo Auzmendi Corrected
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 58% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was San Lorenzo win 24%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 58% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was San Lorenzo win 24%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 58% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was San Lorenzo win 24%)
FTFULL TIME San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo Riestra
FTSan Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo Riestra · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

San Lorenzo win37%

Draw38%

Deportivo Riestra win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:45

VenueEstadio Pedro Bidegain

RefereeBruno Amiconi

Line-ups

San Lorenzo

3-4-1-2

Deportivo Riestra

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

San Lorenzo

Deportivo Riestra

8Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

San Lorenzo

3-4-1-2

25 J. Devecchi

35 A. Cordoba

2 D. Arboleda

19 E. Amor

24 N. Tripichio

62 G. Alassia

10 F. Gulli

3 T. Rodriguez Pagano

38 F. Farias

29 R. Auzmendi

9 A. Cuello

Coach · Dario Insua Ruben

Substitutes

20 · F. Altamirano

6 · M. De Ritis

42 · F. Lorenzon

36 · D. Herrera

32 · E. Herrera

27 · M. Rio

39 · U. Ojeda

13 · J. Rattalino

14 · A. Ladstatter

34 · M. Atrio

21 · G. del Prete

44 · E. Salas

Deportivo Riestra

5-3-2

1 I. Arce

36 M. Bracamonte

5 P. Ramirez

22 C. Paz

19 J. Randazzo

15 N. Sansotre

8 M. Celiz

14 P. Monje

10 B. Sanchez

11 A. Diaz

7 A. Alonso

Coach · Guillermo Duro

Substitutes

23 · M. Arzamendia

27 · J. Goitia

6 · I. Gariglio

2 · C. Quintana

13 · R. Gallo

16 · N. Watson

20 · T. Lauro

29 · A. Graneros

17 · A. Almada

21 · T. Gonzalez

40 · G. Obredor

9 · N. Benegas

Our number · drawPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Lorenzo win	37%	38%	−1
Draw	38%	34%	+4
Deportivo Riestra win	25%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	20%	30%	−11
Both teams to score	29%	39%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	46%	57%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	7%	14%	−8
San Lorenzo or draw	75%	72%	+4
San Lorenzo clean sheet	52%	–	–
Deportivo Riestra clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 23.1%

0123450 23.1 13.2 4.7 1 17.9 13.3 4.0 2 8.2 5.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Lorenzo down, Deportivo Riestra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,774 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 426 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Lorenzo at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Riestra away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for San Lorenzo, 0.65 for Deportivo Riestra. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–0 DEP · DEP 0–0 SAN · DEP 1–0 SAN

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

SAN LORENZO

DLWDLL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA

DDDLDD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	Racing Club	29	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11