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Rosario Central v Independ. Rivadavia

Rosario Central

5–0Full time

Independ. Rivadavia

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Rosario Central 5–0 Independ. Rivadavia ROSARIO CENTRAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rosario Central win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 49 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosario Central win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rosario Central 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
11′A goal for Rosario Central on 11′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 44–31–26
13′We said Rosario Central at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
28′Ángel Di María scores for Rosario Central on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
44′Independ. Rivadavia are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′Independ. Rivadavia are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 78–17–4
53′51′ and it is 2–0: Jaminton Campaz on the scoresheet for Rosario Central. 2–0 · 97–3–0
56′We said Rosario Central at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Independ. Rivadavia · On: Matías Reali · Off: Luis Sequeira
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Independ. Rivadavia · On: Matías Reali · Off: Luis Sequeira
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Jose Ignacio Florentin · Independ. Rivadavia
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Rosario Central 4–0 Independ. Rivadavia · Ángel Di María
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Rosario Central 4–0 Independ. Rivadavia · Enzo Copetti
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rosario Central · On: Franco Cervi · Off: Jaminton Campaz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rosario Central · On: Marco Ruben · Off: Enzo Copetti
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Independ. Rivadavia · On: Stefano Moreyra · Off: Tomas Bottari
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rosario Central · On: Julian Fernandez · Off: Franco Ibarra
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Rosario Central 5–0 Independ. Rivadavia · Enzo Copetti
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Rosario Central 5–0 Independ. Rivadavia · Marco Ruben
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rosario Central · On: Juan Giménez · Off: Ángel Di María
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Independ. Rivadavia · On: Leonel Bucca · Off: Matías Fernández
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Rosario Central win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
FTFULL TIME Rosario Central 5–0 Independ. Rivadavia
FTRosario Central 5–0 Independ. Rivadavia · Rosario Central win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rosario Central win45%

Draw30%

Independ. Rivadavia win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

RefereeFacundo Tello

Line-ups

Rosario Central

4-2-3-1

Independ. Rivadavia

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rosario Central

Independ. Rivadavia

5Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rosario Central

4-2-3-1

23 C. Ledesma

32 E. Coronel

46 I. Ovando

13 G. Avila

3 A. Sandez

5 F. Ibarra

20 V. Pizarro

31 F. Navarro

11 A. Di Maria

8 J. Campaz

22 E. Copetti

Coach · Jorge Almiron

Substitutes

38 · D. Fernandez

6 · J. Komar

24 · J. Gimenez

33 · A. Soto

15 · F. Mallo Blanco

2 · S. Zaracho

42 · E. Veron

9 · M. Ruben

10 · F. Cervi

26 · G. Cantizano

34 · T. Badaloni

18 · J. Fernandez

Independ. Rivadavia

4-2-3-1

30 N. Bolcato

14 L. Gomez

2 L. Costa

42 S. Studer

3 J. M. Elordi

5 T. Bottari

25 J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

11 G. Rios

77 L. Sequeira

10 M. Fernandez

9 A. Arce

Coach · Alfredo Berti

Substitutes

21 · E. F. Gomez Riga

28 · A. Vigo

13 · A. Osella

40 · I. Villalba

8 · L. Bucca

34 · S. Moreyra

27 · D. Crego

7 · V. Ramis

19 · R. Atencio

43 · F. Sartori

80 · M. Reali

23 · L. Diaz

Our number · rosario central winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Rosario Central a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosario Central win	45%	47%	−3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Independ. Rivadavia win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	22%	−3
Rosario Central or draw	75%	76%	−1
Rosario Central clean sheet	40%	–	–
Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.9 8.7 4.5 1 12.9 13.9 5.9 2 9.3 8.4 3.9 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosario Central down, Independ. Rivadavia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,774 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 426 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosario Central at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Independ. Rivadavia away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Rosario Central, 0.92 for Independ. Rivadavia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IND 2–0 ROS · IND 1–1 ROS

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

ROSARIO CENTRAL

DLDWWD2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA

DWLWWD0–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	Racing Club	29	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11