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River Plate v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

River Plate

1–0Full time

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 11 OCT · El Monumental

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto RIVER PLATE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said River Plate win~~68%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.159

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.065

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said River Plate win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: River Plate was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–20–10
1′KICK-OFF River Plate v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
3′Much as we predicted: River Plate was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–21–11
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Fernando Rodríguez · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · Marcos Acuña
7′River Plate ahead on 6′ through Marcos Acuña. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–2
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' River Plate win: 68% at kick-off, 89% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' River Plate win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
8′River Plate ahead on 6′ through Marcos Acuña. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–2
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' River Plate win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' River Plate win: 68% at kick-off, 89% now
9′We published River Plate at 68%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–2
10′We published River Plate at 68%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' River Plate win: 68% at kick-off, 89% now
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Alejandro Martín Cabrera · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
45′HALF-TIME River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
45′SECOND HALF River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Yeison Daniel Moreno Murillo · Off: Ibrahim Hesar Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Matias Valenti · Off: Fernando Rodríguez Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Martín Garnerone · Off: Mauro Valiente Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' River Plate · On: Thiago Almada · Off: Lautaro Pereyra Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' River Plate · On: Rafael Borré · Off: Sebastián Driussi Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Siro Rosané · Off: Tomás González Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Siro Rosané · Off: Tomás González Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' River Plate · On: Facundo González · Off: Tomás Ezequiel Galván Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' River Plate · On: Juan Cruz Meza · Off: Marcos Acuña Corrected
FTFULL TIME River Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
FTRiver Plate 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · River Plate win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

River Plate win68%

Draw22%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:30

Venue · El Monumental

Referee · Nazareno Arasa

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

River Plate

4-3-2-1

41 S. Beltran

29 G. Montiel

28 L. Martinez Quarta

30 N. Otamendi

21 M. Acuna

50 T. Andrada

15 Fausto Vera

26 T. Galvan

10 A. Correa

25 L. Pereyra

9 S. Driussi

Coach · Leonardo Ponzio

Substitutes

33 · E. Centurion

20 · G. Gonzalez

2 · T. Ramirez

13 · L. Rivero

31 · F. Gonzalez

8 · M. Arambarri

6 · A. Moreno

24 · J. Meza

44 · L. Silva

19 · R. Borre

23 · T. Almada

18 · L. Beltran

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

5-3-2

38 L. Herrera

6 J. Antonini

2 G. Maffini

30 S. Ojeda

29 A. Quiroga

23 F. Rodriguez

10 T. Gonzalez

5 A. Cabrera

17 G. Alanis

77 I. Hesar

22 M. Valiente

Coach · Ruben Forestello

Substitutes

12 · F. Gualiteri

14 · G. Gonzalez

3 · L. Banos

28 · F. Cobos

31 · M. Valenti

8 · S. Rosane

11 · M. Garnerone

99 · J. Chala

9 · J. Ferreira

16 · Y. Moreno

32 · M. Bajamich

18 · J. Rivero

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

River Plate

4-3-2-1

41 S. Beltran

29 G. Montiel

28 L. Martinez Quarta

30 N. Otamendi

21 M. Acuna

50 T. Andrada

15 Fausto Vera

26 T. Galvan

10 A. Correa

25 L. Pereyra

9 S. Driussi

Coach · Leonardo Ponzio

Substitutes

33 · E. Centurion

20 · G. Gonzalez

2 · T. Ramirez

13 · L. Rivero

31 · F. Gonzalez

8 · M. Arambarri

6 · A. Moreno

24 · J. Meza

44 · L. Silva

19 · R. Borre

23 · T. Almada

18 · L. Beltran

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

5-3-2

38 L. Herrera

6 J. Antonini

2 G. Maffini

30 S. Ojeda

29 A. Quiroga

23 F. Rodriguez

10 T. Gonzalez

5 A. Cabrera

17 G. Alanis

77 I. Hesar

22 M. Valiente

Coach · Ruben Forestello

Substitutes

12 · F. Gualiteri

14 · G. Gonzalez

3 · L. Banos

28 · F. Cobos

31 · M. Valenti

8 · S. Rosane

11 · M. Garnerone

99 · J. Chala

9 · J. Ferreira

16 · Y. Moreno

32 · M. Bajamich

18 · J. Rivero

Our number · river plate winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

68% The market80%

Us68%

~~Market~~80%

We make River Plate a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · river plate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 79% to 80% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
River Plate win	68%	80%	−12
Draw	22%	15%	+7
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win	10%	5%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	39%	30%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
River Plate or draw	90%	95%	−5
River Plate clean sheet	56%	–	–
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.8%

0123450 9.1 4.0 1 14.8 9.9 2.7 2 14.8 8.7 2.6 3 9.5 5.6 4 4.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+River Plate down, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,770 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 422 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

River Plate at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for River Plate, 0.59 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–2 RIV

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

RIVER PLATE

WDWWWL2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO

DDLLLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
16	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
17	Racing Club	29	−1	36
18	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
25	Banfield	27	−7	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11