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Racing Club v Independiente
Racing Club
IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Juan Domingo Perón
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Club win at 43%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Racing Club was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–27
- 1′KICK-OFF Racing Club v Independiente
- 7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Juan Barinaga · Racing Club
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Matías Zaracho · Racing Club
- 30′29′: Matías Zaracho on the scoresheet for Racing Club. 0–0 · 37–38–25
- 31′We published Racing Club at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 29' Racing Club 1–0 Independiente · Adrián Martínez (assist Tomás Conechny)
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
- 32′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Racing Club 1–0 Independiente
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente · On: Matías Abaldo · Off: Luciano Cabral
- 45′SECOND HALF Racing Club 1–0 Independiente
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Mateo Ezequiel Martínez · Racing Club
- 55′We published Racing Club at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Gonzalo Escudero · Racing Club
- 66′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–60–16
- 66′Maximiliano Meza scores for Independiente on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–60–16
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Racing Club 1–1 Independiente
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Racing Club win 23%)
- 72′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Diego Ulises·Ortegoza · Off: Matías Zaracho
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Duván Vergara · Off: Tomás Conechny
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Leonel Pérez · Off: Matías Kranevitter
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Racing Club · On: Ezequiel Cannavo · Off: Juan Barinaga
- 78′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente · On: Iván Morales · Off: Chimy Ávila
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente · On: Leonardo Godoy · Off: Santiago Arias
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Racing Club · On: Elías David Torres · Off: Lautaro Diaz
- 83′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Independiente · On: Facundo Zabala · Off: Nahuel Banegas
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Iván Morales · Independiente
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Independiente · On: Lautaro Millán · Off: Maximiliano Meza
- 90′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Racing Club at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Leonardo Godoy · Independiente
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Leonel Pérez · Racing Club
- FTFULL TIME Racing Club 1–1 Independiente
- FTRacing Club 1–1 Independiente · Racing Club win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Racing Club are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Racing Club 43%, draw 31%, Independiente 27%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Racing Club win43%
Independiente win27%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:45
RoundClausura · matchday 13
VenueEstadio Juan Domingo Perón
RefereeFacundo Tello
Match timeline
All events
Racing ClubMIN
IndependienteEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Racing Club
4-2-3-1
Independiente
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Racing Club
Independiente
Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina
Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Racing Club
4-2-3-1
25 F. Cambeses
14 J. Barinaga
38 M. Martinez
43 G. Escudero
19 I. Rodriguez
20 G. A. Lodico
5 M. Kranevitter
11 M. Zaracho
32 L. Diaz
17 T. Conechny
9 Adrian Martinez
Coach · Sebastian Ariel Romero
Substitutes
30 · M. Tagliamonte
18 · Pacha
2 · M. Perez
4 · E. Cannavo
23 · N. Colombo
16 · U. Ortegoza
46 · A. Tello
24 · A. Fernandez
40 · F. Fraga
7 · D. Vergara
22 · E. Torres
33 · L. Perez
Independiente
4-3-3
33 R. Rey
4 S. Arias
36 S. Valdez
35 J. Arrayago
5 N. Banegas
16 M. Perez Curci
23 I. Marcone
8 M. Meza
7 S. Montiel
6 C. Avila
10 L. Cabral
Coach · Jadson Viera
Substitutes
77 · S. Mele
22 · F. Zabala
29 · L. Godoy
2 · F. Calderon
13 · J. Fedorco
32 · D. Martinez
14 · L. Millan
24 · J. Palais
9 · I. Morales
19 · M. Abaldo
30 · T. Parmo
34 · F. Tempone
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Racing Club
4-2-3-1
25 F. Cambeses
14 J. Barinaga
38 M. Martinez
43 G. Escudero
19 I. Rodriguez
20 G. A. Lodico
5 M. Kranevitter
11 M. Zaracho
32 L. Diaz
17 T. Conechny
9 Adrian Martinez
Coach · Sebastian Ariel Romero
Substitutes
30 · M. Tagliamonte
18 · Pacha
2 · M. Perez
4 · E. Cannavo
23 · N. Colombo
16 · U. Ortegoza
46 · A. Tello
24 · A. Fernandez
40 · F. Fraga
7 · D. Vergara
22 · E. Torres
33 · L. Perez
Independiente
4-3-3
33 R. Rey
4 S. Arias
36 S. Valdez
35 J. Arrayago
5 N. Banegas
16 M. Perez Curci
23 I. Marcone
8 M. Meza
7 S. Montiel
6 C. Avila
10 L. Cabral
Coach · Jadson Viera
Substitutes
77 · S. Mele
22 · F. Zabala
29 · L. Godoy
2 · F. Calderon
13 · J. Fedorco
32 · D. Martinez
14 · L. Millan
24 · J. Palais
9 · I. Morales
19 · M. Abaldo
30 · T. Parmo
34 · F. Tempone
We make Racing Club a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 42% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club win | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 0 |
| Independiente win | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 20% | −2 |
| Racing Club or draw | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Racing Club clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Independiente clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug
RACING CLUB
INDEPENDIENTE