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Model 1.2

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Racing Club v Independiente

Racing Club
1–1Full time
Independiente

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31
Racing Club 1–1 Independiente RACING CLUB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Racing Club win43%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.734
The market’s Brier score0.733

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Club win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Racing Club was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Racing Club v Independiente
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Juan Barinaga · Racing Club
  5. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Matías Zaracho · Racing Club
  6. 30′29′: Matías Zaracho on the scoresheet for Racing Club. 0–0 · 37–38–25
  7. 31′We published Racing Club at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 29' Racing Club 1–0 Independiente · Adrián Martínez (assist Tomás Conechny)
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
  10. 32′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–6
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Racing Club 1–0 Independiente
  12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente · On: Matías Abaldo · Off: Luciano Cabral
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Racing Club 1–0 Independiente
  14. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Mateo Ezequiel Martínez · Racing Club
  15. 55′We published Racing Club at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  17. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Gonzalo Escudero · Racing Club
  18. 66′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–60–16
  19. 66′Maximiliano Meza scores for Independiente on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–60–16
  20. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Racing Club 1–1 Independiente
  21. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  22. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Racing Club win 23%)
  23. 72′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  24. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Diego Ulises·Ortegoza · Off: Matías Zaracho
  25. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Duván Vergara · Off: Tomás Conechny
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Club · On: Leonel Pérez · Off: Matías Kranevitter
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Racing Club · On: Ezequiel Cannavo · Off: Juan Barinaga
  28. 78′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente · On: Iván Morales · Off: Chimy Ávila
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente · On: Leonardo Godoy · Off: Santiago Arias
  31. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Racing Club · On: Elías David Torres · Off: Lautaro Diaz
  33. 83′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Independiente · On: Facundo Zabala · Off: Nahuel Banegas
  35. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Iván Morales · Independiente
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Independiente · On: Lautaro Millán · Off: Maximiliano Meza
  37. 90′We said Racing Club at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  38. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Racing Club at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  39. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Racing Club win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  40. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Leonardo Godoy · Independiente
  41. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Leonel Pérez · Racing Club
  42. FTFULL TIME Racing Club 1–1 Independiente
  43. FTRacing Club 1–1 Independiente · Racing Club win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Club are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Club 43%, draw 31%, Independiente 27%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Racing Club v IndependienteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Racing Club win43%
Draw31%
Independiente win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:45

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Juan Domingo Perón

RefereeFacundo Tello

Line-ups

Racing Club

4-2-3-1

Independiente

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Club

Independiente

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Racing Club

4-2-3-1

25 F. Cambeses

14 J. Barinaga

38 M. Martinez

43 G. Escudero

19 I. Rodriguez

20 G. A. Lodico

5 M. Kranevitter

11 M. Zaracho

32 L. Diaz

17 T. Conechny

9 Adrian Martinez

Coach · Sebastian Ariel Romero

Substitutes

30 · M. Tagliamonte

18 · Pacha

2 · M. Perez

4 · E. Cannavo

23 · N. Colombo

16 · U. Ortegoza

46 · A. Tello

24 · A. Fernandez

40 · F. Fraga

7 · D. Vergara

22 · E. Torres

33 · L. Perez

Independiente

4-3-3

33 R. Rey

4 S. Arias

36 S. Valdez

35 J. Arrayago

5 N. Banegas

16 M. Perez Curci

23 I. Marcone

8 M. Meza

7 S. Montiel

6 C. Avila

10 L. Cabral

Coach · Jadson Viera

Substitutes

77 · S. Mele

22 · F. Zabala

29 · L. Godoy

2 · F. Calderon

13 · J. Fedorco

32 · D. Martinez

14 · L. Millan

24 · J. Palais

9 · I. Morales

19 · M. Abaldo

30 · T. Parmo

34 · F. Tempone

Our number · racing club winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market42%
Us43%
Market42%

We make Racing Club a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Racing Club v Independiente1.27 – 0.94
Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 AugW2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2
The market · Racing Club win42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 18:08
Our probability · Racing Club win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Racing Club win43%42%+1
Draw31%31%0
Independiente win27%27%0
Over 2.5 goals38%39%−1
Both teams to score45%47%−2
Over 1.5 goals66%65%+1
Over 3.5 goals18%20%−2
Racing Club or draw73%73%0
Racing Club clean sheet39%––
Independiente clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%
0123450 12.2 9.3 4.9 1 12.8 14.0 6.1 2 8.8 8.2 3.9 3 3.7 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Club down, Independiente across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.30
Over 2.51 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsIND 1–0 RAC · RAC 0–0 IND · IND 1–1 RAC · RAC 0–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug

RACING CLUB

LLLWWL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

INDEPENDIENTE

LWDWLD0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–0