Platense v Lanus prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Platense 0–1 Lanus DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~34%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.669

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.656

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 34%.
14′Little has changed for our model: the draw 34% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–36–32
30′We said the draw at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Platense 0–1 Lanus
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 21% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Lanus win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
31′29′: Allan Steven Wlk Duré on the scoresheet for Lanus, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
31′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Matías Sepúlveda · Lanus
45′HALF-TIME Platense 0–1 Lanus
45′SECOND HALF Platense 0–1 Lanus
53′We said the draw at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
59′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Tomás Silva · Platense
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Diego Agustín Medina · Lanus
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Platense · On: Gonzalo Lencina · Off: Bruno Christian Sepulveda
70′We said the draw at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lanus · On: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos · Off: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lanus · On: Ramiro Carrera · Off: Matías Sepúlveda
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Platense · On: Juan Carlos Gauto · Off: Franco Zapiola Yamartino
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 14% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lanus · On: Yoshan Valois · Off: Allan Steven Wlk Duré
79′We said the draw at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Platense · On: Maximiliano Amarfil · Off: Martin Barrios
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Platense · On: Guido Mainero · Off: Kevin Retamar
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Platense · On: Nico López · Off: Bautista Merlini
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
89′We said the draw at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 0–3–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lanus · On: Felipe Peña Biafore · Off: Diego Agustín Medina
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lanus · On: Nicolás Morgantini · Off: Eduardo Salvio
94′14 shots for Platense, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Platense 0–1 Lanus
FTPlatense 0–1 Lanus · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Platense 33%, draw 34%, Lanus 33%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Platense v LanusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Platense win33%

Draw34%

Lanus win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

RefereeLeandro Rey Hilfer

Line-ups

Platense

4-2-3-1

Lanus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Platense

Lanus

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Lanus	12	+6	20
13	Platense	12	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Platense

4-2-3-1

30 J. Cozzani

25 J. Saborido

34 M. Mendia

31 Victor Cuesta

3 T. Silva

5 I. Gomez

24 M. Barrios

43 K. Retamar

18 B. Merlini

10 F. Zapiola

79 B. Sepulveda

Coach · Martin Palermo

Substitutes

22 · N. Sumavil

4 · A. Lagos

6 · E. Raggio

38 · C. Ingenthron

16 · G. Togni

15 · M. Amarfil

17 · F. Bussio

7 · G. Mainero

99 · G. Lencina

33 · J. Gauto

11 · N. Lopez

21 · A. Lotti

Lanus

4-2-3-1

26 N. Losada

33 T. Guidara

24 C. Izquierdoz

13 J. Canale

6 S. Marcich

17 A. Medina

30 A. Cardozo

16 M. Sepulveda

11 E. Salvio

77 L. Besozzi

20 A. Wlk

Coach · Mauricio Pellegrino

Substitutes

1 · F. Petroli

4 · G. Perez

35 · R. De Jesus

3 · N. Morgantini

15 · R. Loaiza

8 · F. N. Watson

23 · R. Carrera

10 · Marcelino Moreno

5 · F. Pena Biafore

19 · Y. Valois

38 · B. Acosta

42 · G. Lobos

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

34% The market33%

Us34%

~~Market~~33%

We make the draw a 34% chance. The market has it at 33%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platense v Lanus~~0.97 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~13 v 5

~~The market · Draw~~33% · ours 34%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense win	33%	33%	0
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Lanus win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Both teams to score	40%	43%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−4
Platense or draw	67%	66%	+1
Platense clean sheet	38%	–	–
Lanus clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 12.8 6.8 2.2 1 12.7 14.5 6.5 2.1 2 6.7 6.5 3.2 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense down, Lanus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,785 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lanus away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Platense, 0.97 for Lanus. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LAN 0–0 PLA · LAN 2–1 PLA · PLA 0–0 LAN · LAN 0–0 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug

PLATENSE

LDLLDD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

LANUS

LWWWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	+6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	12	+4	21
5	Lanus	12	+6	20
6	Gimnasia M.	12	+3	20
7	Independiente	12	−1	18
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
9	Estudiantes L.P.	12	+2	14
10	San Lorenzo	12	−6	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11
13	Platense	12	−6	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	−8	9