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Platense v Argentinos JRS

Platense

1–1Full time

Argentinos JRS

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Platense 1–1 Argentinos JRS ARGENTINOS JRS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentinos JRS win~~36%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 48 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentinos JRS win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Argentinos JRS was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 30–32–37
11′Diego Rodrigo Porcel scores for Argentinos JRS on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
13′We published Argentinos JRS at 36%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
30′Diego Rodrigo Porcel scores for Argentinos JRS on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
31′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 6–20–73
37′We published Argentinos JRS at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Platense 0–1 Argentinos JRS
46′SECOND HALF Platense 0–1 Argentinos JRS
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Sebastián Prieto · Argentinos JRS
59′We published Argentinos JRS at 36%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–16–81
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Platense · On: Ivan Gómez · Off: Maximiliano Amarfil
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Platense · On: Franco Zapiola Yamartino · Off: Guido Mainero
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Platense · On: Gonzalo Lencina · Off: Bruno Christian Sepulveda
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Argentinos JRS · On: Hernan Lopez · Off: Gastón Verón
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Platense 1–1 Argentinos JRS · Diego Rodrigo Porcel
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Platense 1–1 Argentinos JRS · Franco Zapiola Yamartino
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ivan Gómez · Platense
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Kevin Retamar · Platense
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Argentinos JRS · On: Claudio Bravo · Off: Sebastián Prieto
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Argentinos JRS · On: Claudio Bravo · Off: Sebastián Prieto
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Platense · On: Augusto Lotti · Off: Bautista Merlini
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Argentinos JRS · On: Kevin Coronel · Off: Tomas Molina
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Argentinos JRS · On: Matías Giménez · Off: Diego Rodrigo Porcel
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Argentinos JRS win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
FTFULL TIME Platense 1–1 Argentinos JRS
FTPlatense 1–1 Argentinos JRS · Argentinos JRS win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Platense win29%

Draw35%

Argentinos JRS win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

RefereeNicolas Ramirez

Line-ups

Platense

4-2-3-1

Argentinos JRS

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Platense

Argentinos JRS

6Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
26	Platense	27	−11	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Platense

4-2-3-1

30 J. Cozzani

4 A. Lagos

34 M. Mendia

31 Victor Cuesta

3 T. Silva

15 M. Amarfil

24 M. Barrios

7 G. Mainero

18 B. Merlini

43 K. Retamar

79 B. Sepulveda

Coach · Martin Palermo

Substitutes

22 · N. Sumavil

6 · E. Raggio

8 · F. Lopez

5 · I. Gomez

16 · G. Togni

10 · F. Zapiola

17 · F. Bussio

99 · G. Lencina

33 · J. Gauto

11 · N. Lopez

21 · A. Lotti

29 · F. Minerva

Argentinos JRS

4-3-3

25 B. Cortes

17 F. Paredes

16 F. Alvarez

6 F. Vazquez

20 S. Prieto

5 F. Carrizo

15 K. Gutierrez

11 N. Oroz

7 D. Porcel

27 T. Molina

9 G. Veron

Coach · Nicolas Diez

Substitutes

12 · G. Siri Payer

26 · C. Bravo

4 · E. Godoy

22 · K. Coronel

23 · M. Mendoza

32 · G. Infantino

18 · F. Mancuello

10 · G. Florentin

8 · H. Lopez

35 · A. Alcaraz

19 · M. Gimenez

48 · F. Jainikoski

Our number · argentinos jrs winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make Argentinos JRS a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · argentinos jrs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense win	29%	30%	−1
Draw	35%	32%	+2
Argentinos JRS win	36%	38%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−4
Platense or draw	64%	62%	+1
Platense clean sheet	37%	–	–
Argentinos JRS clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 14.4 7.7 2.6 1 12.4 14.4 6.5 2.2 2 5.8 5.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense down, Argentinos JRS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,774 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 426 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.22 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Argentinos JRS away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Platense, 0.99 for Argentinos JRS. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.22

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ARG 1–0 PLA · PLA 0–0 ARG · ARG 1–0 PLA · PLA 2–1 ARG

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

PLATENSE

WLDLLD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

ARGENTINOS JRS

DWDDLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	Racing Club	29	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11