Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 01:30

Newells Old Boys 2–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago NEWELLS OLD BOYS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newells Old Boys win~~41%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newells Old Boys win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newells Old Boys was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
1′KICK-OFF Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago
32′A goal for Newells Old Boys on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Newells Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Newells Old Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
33′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Matías Vera · Central Cordoba de Santiago
45′HALF-TIME Newells Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
46′SECOND HALF Newells Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Fernando Martinez · Central Cordoba de Santiago
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Matías Cóccaro · Newells Old Boys
56′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Newells Old Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra · Newells Old Boys
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Darío Cáceres · Central Cordoba de Santiago
69′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′69′: Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra on the scoresheet for Newells Old Boys, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Newells Old Boys 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago · Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Newells Old Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
71′68′: Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra on the scoresheet for Newells Old Boys, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Newells Old Boys · On: Alan Soñora · Off: Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Horacio Tijanovich · Off: Diego Barrera
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Lucas Varaldo · Off: Michael Santos
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Martin Ortega · Newells Old Boys
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Yuri Casermeiro · Central Cordoba de Santiago
80′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′We published Newells Old Boys at 41%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Newells Old Boys 2–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago
81′Central Cordoba de Santiago pull one back on 80′ through Leonardo Sequeira. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Newells Old Boys · On: Juan Ignacio Ramírez · Off: Matías Cóccaro
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Newells Old Boys · On: Lucas Nicolás Gómez · Off: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Marco Iacobellis · Central Cordoba de Santiago
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Newells Old Boys · On: Jeronimo Russo · Off: Facundo Samuel Guch
FTFULL TIME Newells Old Boys 2–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago
FTNewells Old Boys 2–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago · Newells Old Boys win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newells Old Boys are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newells Old Boys 41%, draw 31%, Central Cordoba de Santiago 28%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Newells Old Boys win41%

Draw31%

Central Cordoba de Santiago win28%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Marcelo Bielsa

RefereeHernan Mastrangelo

Line-ups

Newells Old Boys

4-3-3

Central Cordoba de Santiago

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newells Old Boys

Central Cordoba de Santiago

7Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Newells Old Boys

4-3-3

30 J. Reinatti

6 M. Ortega

25 B. Cabrera

16 L. Carrizo

24 F. Escobar

26 R. Herrera

19 J. Mattar

20 Facundo Gauch

7 W. Mazzantti

9 M. Cóccaro

32 S. Solari

Coach · F. Kudelka

Substitutes

27 · L. Gómez

4 · A. Montero

33 · W. Núñez

99 · I. Ramírez

23 · N. Goitea

28 · J. Russo

39 · T. Rios

22 · O. Salomón

36 · Francisco Scarpeccio

31 · Francisco Sciarini

8 · D. Sotelo

15 · A. Soñora

Central Cordoba de Santiago

4-1-4-1

1 A. Aguerre

20 F. Martínez

17 Y. Casermeiro

2 A. Maciel

23 D. Cáceres

22 M. Vera

28 L. Sequeira

10 M. Iacobellis

18 L. González

7 D. Barrera

27 M. Santos

Coach · S. Domínguez

Substitutes

55 · J. Cardozo

32 · N. Garrido

13 · J. Gómez

44 · Kevin Jacobo Adrián Ibañez

3 · L. Marchi

41 · Enzo Tiziano Ramirez Suarez

43 · Ignacio Nahuel Santillan

11 · H. Tijanovich

25 · J. Vallejos

9 · L. Varaldo

21 · F. Aguilar

47 · M. Cuitino

Our number · newells old boys winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make Newells Old Boys a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago~~1.21 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~8 v 14

~~The market · Newells Old Boys win~~53% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newells Old Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newells Old Boys win	41%	53%	−12
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Central Cordoba de Santiago win	28%	19%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Newells Old Boys or draw	72%	81%	−9
Newells Old Boys clean sheet	39%	–	–
Central Cordoba de Santiago clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.9 9.9 5.2 1 13.0 14.2 6.2 2 8.5 7.9 3.7 3 3.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newells Old Boys down, Central Cordoba de Santiago across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,795 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 447 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newells Old Boys at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Central Cordoba de Santiago away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Newells Old Boys, 0.94 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEN 1–3 NEW · NEW 1–1 CEN · CEN 2–0 NEW · NEW 2–3 CEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug

NEWELLS OLD BOYS

DDDWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO

DLLDDD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	+6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
5	Lanus	13	+7	23
6	Gimnasia M.	13	+2	20
7	Independiente	13	−1	19
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
9	San Lorenzo	13	−5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	+1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11
13	Platense	13	−7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	−8	9