Lanus v Velez Sarsfield prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield LANUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lanus win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lanus win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lanus 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–29
2′KICK-OFF Lanus v Velez Sarsfield
5′Little has changed for our model: Lanus 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
6′Little has changed for our model: Lanus 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
10′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Lucas Robertone · Velez Sarsfield
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Thiago Aguirre · Velez Sarsfield
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Rodrigo Aliendro · Velez Sarsfield
45′SECOND HALF Lanus 0–0 Velez Sarsfield
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Velez Sarsfield · On: Diego Valdés · Off: Thiago Aguirre
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Lanus 0–0 Velez Sarsfield · Sasha Julian Marcich
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Lanus 1–0 Velez Sarsfield · Sasha Julian Marcich
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Lanus · On: Yoshan Valois · Off: Allan Steven Wlk Duré
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Lanus · On: Matías Sepúlveda · Off: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Carlos Izquierdoz · Lanus
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Velez Sarsfield · On: Dilan Godoy · Off: Matias Arias
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Velez Sarsfield · On: Simón Escobar · Off: Juan Cruz Policella
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lanus · On: Ramiro Carrera · Off: Marcelino Moreno
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lanus · On: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos · Off: Eduardo Salvio
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ramiro Carrera · Lanus
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Velez Sarsfield · On: Luca Feler · Off: Lucas Robertone
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Velez Sarsfield · On: Lautaro Piola · Off: Elías Gómez
94′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Lanus · On: Gonzalo German Perez Corbalan · Off: Diego Agustín Medina
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield · Sasha Julian Marcich
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield · Tomás Marchiori
FTFULL TIME Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield
FTLanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield · Lanus win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Lanus win39%

Draw32%

Velez Sarsfield win28%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Lanus

RefereeSebastian Nicolas Martinez

Line-ups

Lanus

4-2-3-1

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lanus

Velez Sarsfield

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
13	Lanus	28	+5	41

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lanus

4-2-3-1

26 N. Losada

33 T. Guidara

24 C. Izquierdoz

13 J. Canale

6 S. Marcich

17 A. Medina

30 A. Cardozo

77 L. Besozzi

10 Marcelino Moreno

11 E. Salvio

20 A. Wlk

Coach · Mauricio Pellegrino

Substitutes

1 · F. Petroli

4 · G. Perez

35 · R. De Jesus

3 · N. Morgantini

15 · R. Loaiza

8 · F. N. Watson

23 · R. Carrera

16 · M. Sepulveda

5 · F. Pena Biafore

19 · Y. Valois

38 · B. Acosta

42 · G. Lobos

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1

1 T. Marchiori

4 J. Garcia

32 T. Silvero

16 L. Magallan

3 E. Gomez

29 R. Aliendro

8 L. Robertone

35 M. Arias

37 J. Policella

39 T. Aguirre

77 R. Martinez

Coach · Guillermo Schelotto

Substitutes

23 · F. Sanguinetti

21 · J. Gordon

19 · L. Cristaldo

18 · S. Escobar

47 · A. Pereyra

46 · U. Piedrabuena

10 · D. Valdes

5 · C. Baeza

48 · L. Feler

17 · A. Veron

15 · D. Godoy

30 · L. Piola

Our number · lanus winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Lanus a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lanus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lanus win	39%	44%	−4
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Velez Sarsfield win	28%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−4
Lanus or draw	72%	75%	−4
Lanus clean sheet	40%	–	–
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 14.0 10.6 5.4 1 13.3 14.4 6.1 2 8.2 7.5 3.5 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lanus down, Velez Sarsfield across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,779 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 431 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lanus at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Velez Sarsfield away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Lanus, 0.92 for Velez Sarsfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VEL 0–1 LAN · VEL 3–0 LAN · LAN 0–0 VEL · VEL 0–0 LAN

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

LANUS

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

VELEZ SARSFIELD

DDWDWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	32	+15	58
2	Argentinos JRS	31	+11	56
3	Rosario Central	31	+13	54
4	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
5	River Plate	31	+14	52
6	Independ. Rivadavia	29	+9	52
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	San Lorenzo	29	−6	37
19	Racing Club	30	−3	36
20	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
21	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	28	−11	27
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	28	−10	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	−29	11