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Instituto Cordoba v Boca Juniors

Instituto Cordoba

2–2Full time

Boca Juniors

Liga Profesional Argentina · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Presidente Peron

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:00

Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors BOCA JUNIORS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boca Juniors win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.711

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.687

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Juniors win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Boca Juniors was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 29–29–41
1′KICK-OFF Instituto Cordoba v Boca Juniors
13′14′ and it is 1–0: Instituto Cordoba have scored. 1–0 · 61–24–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Boca Juniors
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Boca Juniors
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Boca Juniors win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Instituto Cordoba win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Boca Juniors win 15%)
16′We said Boca Juniors at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 61–24–15
20′We said Boca Juniors at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Gustavo Abregú · Instituto Cordoba
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Boca Juniors · Enner Valencia
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Boca Juniors · Enner Valencia
25′Boca Juniors ahead on 23′ through Enner Valencia. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–36–37
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Boca Juniors win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Instituto Cordoba win 26%)
45′HALF-TIME Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Boca Juniors
45′SECOND HALF Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Boca Juniors
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Instituto Cordoba · On: Hernán De La Fuente · Off: Giuliano Cerato
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Boca Juniors · Enner Valencia
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Boca Juniors · Jonathan Galván
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Williams Alarcón · Boca Juniors
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Boca Juniors · On: Leandro Paredes · Off: Milton Delgado
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors · Jonathan Galván
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors · Miguel Merentiel
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Instituto Cordoba · On: Jhon Córdoba · Off: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Instituto Cordoba · On: Facundo Ezquel Suarez · Off: Matías Tissera
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Malcon Braida · Boca Juniors
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Fernando Alarcon · Instituto Cordoba
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Santiago Ascacibar · Boca Juniors
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Fernando Alarcon · Instituto Cordoba
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Matías Gallardo · Instituto Cordoba
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Instituto Cordoba · On: Juan Ignacio Méndez · Off: Matías Gallardo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Instituto Cordoba · On: Lucas Martín Sanseviero Pérez · Off: Alex Luna
FTFULL TIME Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors
FTInstituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors · Boca Juniors win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Instituto Cordoba win28%

Draw31%

Boca Juniors win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 23:30

Venue · Estadio Presidente Peron

Referee · Leandro Rey Hilfer

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Instituto Cordoba

3-4-2-1

29 M. Ledesma

30 J. Galvan

26 L. Mosevich

6 F. R. Alarcon

44 G. Cerato

55 G. Abregu

15 M. Gallardo

3 D. Sosa

21 J. Lazaro

10 A. Luna

17 M. Tissera

Coach · Diego Flores

Substitutes

35 · E. O. Sittaro Miranda

2 · H. De La Fuente

22 · A. Massaccesi

32 · A. Bravo

19 · L. Sanseviero

23 · A. Meli

13 · J. Mendez

8 · J. Acevedo

9 · F. Suarez

20 · J. E. Cordoba Mosquera

7 · N. Guerra

11 · M. Fonseca

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1

1 A. Montero

27 M. Braida

2 L. Di Lollo

26 M. Pellegrino

3 L. Blanco

15 W. H. Alarcon Cepeda

18 M. Delgado

19 L. Flores

7 Carlos Palacios

22 S. Villa

13 E. Valencia

Coach · Rodolfo Arruabarrena

Substitutes

12 · L. Brey

4 · J. Figal

32 · A. Costa

24 · D. Gorosito

42 · F. Herrera

6 · R. Battaglia

5 · L. Paredes

25 · S. Ascacibar

53 · J. Ruiz

11 · Angel Romero

16 · Miguel Merentiel

9 · M. Gimenez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Instituto Cordoba

3-4-2-1

29 M. Ledesma

30 J. Galvan

26 L. Mosevich

6 F. R. Alarcon

44 G. Cerato

55 G. Abregu

15 M. Gallardo

3 D. Sosa

21 J. Lazaro

10 A. Luna

17 M. Tissera

Coach · Diego Flores

Substitutes

35 · E. O. Sittaro Miranda

2 · H. De La Fuente

22 · A. Massaccesi

32 · A. Bravo

19 · L. Sanseviero

23 · A. Meli

13 · J. Mendez

8 · J. Acevedo

9 · F. Suarez

20 · J. E. Cordoba Mosquera

7 · N. Guerra

11 · M. Fonseca

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1

1 A. Montero

27 M. Braida

2 L. Di Lollo

26 M. Pellegrino

3 L. Blanco

15 W. H. Alarcon Cepeda

18 M. Delgado

19 L. Flores

7 Carlos Palacios

22 S. Villa

13 E. Valencia

Coach · Rodolfo Arruabarrena

Substitutes

12 · L. Brey

4 · J. Figal

32 · A. Costa

24 · D. Gorosito

42 · F. Herrera

6 · R. Battaglia

5 · L. Paredes

25 · S. Ascacibar

53 · J. Ruiz

11 · Angel Romero

16 · Miguel Merentiel

9 · M. Gimenez

Our number · boca juniors winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Boca Juniors a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · boca juniors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Instituto Cordoba win	28%	30%	−2
Draw	31%	32%	−1
Boca Juniors win	40%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
Both teams to score	44%	44%	0
Over 1.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	16%	+1
Instituto Cordoba or draw	60%	62%	−3
Instituto Cordoba clean sheet	31%	–	–
Boca Juniors clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.9 12.7 8.3 3.3 1 10.0 14.3 7.8 3.1 2 5.4 6.3 3.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Instituto Cordoba down, Boca Juniors across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,767 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 419 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Instituto Cordoba at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Boca Juniors away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Instituto Cordoba, 1.19 for Boca Juniors. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BOC 2–0 INS · INS 0–0 BOC · BOC 2–3 INS

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

INSTITUTO CORDOBA

DWLWWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–1

BOCA JUNIORS

DWDWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
4	Boca Juniors	28	+19	51
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	29	−1	47
9	Instituto Cordoba	27	+9	46
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
16	Racing Club	29	−1	36
17	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
18	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
19	Sarmiento Junin	26	−6	35
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	27	−7	28
25	Atletico Tucuman	27	−5	27
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	27	−18	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11