Independiente v Boca Juniors prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IndependienteDrawBoca Juniors

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Boca Juniors 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Boca Juniors just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente 31%, draw 32%, Boca Juniors 36%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Independiente v Boca JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Independiente win31%

Draw32%

Boca Juniors win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueLibertadores de America

RefereeNazareno Arasa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente

Boca Juniors

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
8	Independiente	13	−1	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boca juniors winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market45%

Us36%

~~Market~~45%

We make Boca Juniors a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente v Boca Juniors~~0.99 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~8 v 3

~~The market · Boca Juniors win~~45% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boca Juniors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente win	31%	25%	+6
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Boca Juniors win	36%	45%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Independiente or draw	64%	55%	+9
Independiente clean sheet	34%	–	–
Boca Juniors clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 13.9 12.5 7.4 2.7 1 11.3 14.5 7.2 2.6 2 6.2 6.6 3.6 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente down, Boca Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,804 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 456 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Boca Juniors away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Independiente, 1.08 for Boca Juniors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BOC 1–1 IND · BOC 0–1 IND · BOC 0–0 IND · IND 0–2 BOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE

WDWLDD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 1–1

BOCA JUNIORS

DWWWDW2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Defensa Y Justicia	14	+7	27
3	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
4	Lanus	14	+7	24
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
6	Newells Old Boys	14	+3	21
7	Gimnasia M.	14	+1	20
8	Independiente	13	−1	19
9	San Lorenzo	14	−5	18
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	+1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	−4	14
12	Platense	14	−6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	−3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	−7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	−9	9