Huracan v Tigre prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HuracanDrawTigre

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Huracan 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huracan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huracan 40%, draw 34%, Tigre 25%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Huracan v TigreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Huracan win40%

Draw34%

Tigre win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huracan

Tigre

15Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Huracan	13	0	19
12	Tigre	14	−3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huracan winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market44%

Us40%

~~Market~~44%

We make Huracan a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huracan v Tigre~~1.06 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 19 v 13~~8 v 12

~~The market · Huracan win~~44% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Huracan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huracan win	40%	44%	−4
Draw	34%	32%	+2
Tigre win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	17%	−5
Huracan or draw	75%	76%	−1
Huracan clean sheet	46%	–	–
Tigre clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 11.3 4.9 1 15.7 14.1 5.1 2 8.9 6.9 2.7 3 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huracan down, Tigre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,803 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 455 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huracan at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tigre away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Huracan, 0.78 for Tigre. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TIG 1–1 HUR · TIG 0–1 HUR · HUR 2–0 TIG · HUR 0–2 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept

HURACAN

DWWWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

TIGRE

LLLLDL0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	13	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	0	17
11	Banfield	14	−5	14
12	Tigre	14	−3	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8