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Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.

Huracan
1–2Full time
Gimnasia L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 02:30
Huracan 1–2 Gimnasia L.P. HURACAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Huracan win44%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.884
The market’s Brier score0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Huracan win at 44%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Huracan was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–24
  4. 6′Huracan find the net on 5′. 0–0 · 44–32–24
  5. 18′We said Huracan at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
  6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Huracan 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.
  7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Huracan win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
  8. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Gimnasia L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Huracan win 15%)
  9. 19′18′: Ignacio Fernández on the scoresheet for Gimnasia L.P., making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–26–59
  10. 21′We said Huracan at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  11. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Huracan win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  12. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Oscar Cortes · Huracan
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–62
  14. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Leonardo Gil · Huracan
  15. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Rodrigo Fernández · Huracan
  16. 41′We said Huracan at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Huracan 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Huracan 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.
  19. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Huracan · On: Ignacio Pussetto · Off: Leonardo Gil
  20. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Huracan · On: Thaiel Peralta · Off: Facundo Kalinger di Napoli
  21. 61′We said Huracan at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  22. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Huracan win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  23. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Augusto Max · Off: Lucas Janson
  24. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Facundo Waller · Huracan
  25. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Jordy Caicedo · Huracan
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huracan · On: Juan Francisco Bisanz · Off: Oscar Cortes
  27. 78′Huracan have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
  28. 80′Huracan have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
  29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Huracan 1–1 Gimnasia L.P.
  30. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Gimnasia L.P. win 5%)
  31. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Harlen Castillo · Gimnasia L.P.
  32. 85′Huracan level it on 83′ through Jordy Caicedo. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–89–4
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Franco Ramón Torres · Off: Marcelo Torres
  34. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Huracan · On: Lautaro Iván Mora · Off: Facundo Waller
  35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Huracan · On: Bruno Barticciotto · Off: Juan Francisco Bisanz
  36. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Lucas Blondel · Huracan
  37. 98′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  38. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Huracan 1–2 Gimnasia L.P.
  39. 98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Gimnasia L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  40. 99′Germán Conti scores for Gimnasia L.P. on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  41. FTFULL TIME Huracan 1–2 Gimnasia L.P.
  42. FTHuracan 1–2 Gimnasia L.P. · Huracan win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huracan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huracan 44%, draw 33%, Gimnasia L.P. 23%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Huracan win44%
Draw33%
Gimnasia L.P. win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Tomas Adolfo Duco

RefereeNicolas Ramirez

Line-ups

Huracan

4-2-3-1

Gimnasia L.P.

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huracan

Gimnasia L.P.

5Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Huracan12+119
6Gimnasia L.P.12019

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Huracan

4-2-3-1

1 H. Galindez

2 L. Blondel

6 F. Pereyra

35 M. Palazzo

25 C. Ibanez

5 Rodrigo Fernandez

15 F. F. Waller Martiarena

7 O. Cortes

8 L. Gil

24 F. Kalinger

9 J. Caicedo

Coach · Diego Martinez

Substitutes

32 · S. Meza

4 · F. Vera

21 · H. Nervo

19 · L. Lescano

46 · F. Martinez

20 · E. Ojeda

11 · T. Peralta

10 · O. Romero

41 · L. Mora

23 · I. Pussetto

33 · B. Barticciotto

17 · J. Bisanz

Gimnasia L.P.

4-4-2

15 H. Castillo

25 A. Steimbach

13 German Conti

21 E. Martinez

24 P. Silva Torrejon

8 N. Fernandez

5 I. Miramon

18 M. Seoane

17 L. Janson

29 A. Auzmendi

32 M. Torres

Coach · Ariel Pereyra

Substitutes

23 · N. Insfran

22 · M. Melluso

35 · J. Cortazzo

4 · R. Giampaoli

16 · A. Max

10 · N. Schelotto

34 · L. Troncoso

33 · P. Aguiar

40 · A. Martinez

9 · M. Zalazar

7 · M. Panaro

26 · F. Torres

Our number · huracan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market39%
Us44%
Market39%

We make Huracan a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.1.15 – 0.77
Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0
Table places · points 19 v 195 v 6
The market · Huracan win39% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 03:5915 OCT 23:32
Our probability · Huracan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Huracan win44%39%+5
Draw33%31%+2
Gimnasia L.P. win23%29%−6
Over 2.5 goals30%39%−9
Both teams to score38%46%−8
Over 1.5 goals58%64%−6
Over 3.5 goals13%20%−7
Huracan or draw77%71%+6
Huracan clean sheet46%––
Gimnasia L.P. clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%
0123450 15.9 10.1 4.4 1 15.6 14.0 5.0 2 9.7 7.4 2.9 3 3.8 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Huracan down, Gimnasia L.P. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.62
Over 2.52 of 8
Both scored2 of 8
Last meetingsGIM 0–3 HUR · HUR 0–0 GIM · GIM 3–1 HUR · HUR 2–0 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug

HURACAN

DDWWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

GIMNASIA L.P.

WWDDDD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rosario Central12+822
2Belgrano Cordoba12+722
3Argentinos JRS12+522
4Sarmiento Junin12+320
5Huracan12+119
6Gimnasia L.P.12019
7Barracas Central12+118
8Independ. Rivadavia12−418
9River Plate12+217
10Atletico Tucuman12014
11Banfield12−413
12Tigre12−212
13Racing Club12−611
14Aldosivi12−78
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto12−106

The competition's standings before kick-off.