Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 01:00

Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys GIMNASIA M. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia M. win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.536

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia M. win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys
2′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia M. 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Gimnasia M. 0–1 Newells Old Boys
28′Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra scores for Newells Old Boys on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–25–61
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Gimnasia M. win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Newells Old Boys win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Gimnasia M. win 14%)
29′We said Gimnasia M. at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia M. 0–0 Newells Old Boys
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia M. 0–0 Newells Old Boys
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Luca Regiardo · Newells Old Boys
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys · Agustín Módica
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lucas Carrizo · Newells Old Boys
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Newells Old Boys · On: Alan Soñora · Off: Facundo Samuel Guch
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gimnasia M. · On: Germán Guiffrey · Off: Diego Mondino
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gimnasia M. · On: Nahuel Barboza · Off: Matías Vargas
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Newells Old Boys · On: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar · Off: Luca Regiardo
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Matías Emiliano Recalde · Gimnasia M.
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gimnasia M. · On: Martín Úbeda · Off: Luciano César Cingolani
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gimnasia M. · On: Blas Armoa Nunez · Off: Fermin Antonini
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Newells Old Boys · On: Juan Ignacio Ramírez · Off: Franco Escobar
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Gimnasia M. 1–1 Newells Old Boys · Agustín Módica
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gimnasia M. · On: Lautaro Carrera · Off: Esteban Fernández
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Newells Old Boys · On: Walter Nunez · Off: Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Newells Old Boys · On: Francisco Scarpeccio · Off: Rodrigo Herrera
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Nahuel Barboza · Gimnasia M.
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys
FTGimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old Boys · Gimnasia M. win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 22:11 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia M. win44%

Draw31%

Newells Old Boys win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 22:30

VenueVíctor Legrotaglie

RefereeJuan Cruz Robledo

Line-ups

Gimnasia M.

4-2-3-1

Newells Old Boys

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gimnasia M.

Newells Old Boys

7Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia M.

4-2-3-1

23 C. Rigamonti

32 L. Paredes

2 D. Mondino

4 E. Munoz

3 M. Recalde

21 F. Antonini

30 E. Fernandez

26 F. Lencioni

8 M. Vargas

7 L. Cingolani

9 A. Modica

Coach · Ariel Broggi

Substitutes

31 · L. Petruchi

22 · J. Franco

42 · L. Carrera

25 · M. Ubeda

16 · G. Guiffrey

19 · J. Ceballos

5 · N. Barboza

33 · B. Andrada

27 · B. Armoa

11 · S. Rodriguez

15 · U. Sanchez

35 · V. Simoni

Newells Old Boys

4-3-3

30 J. Reinatti

6 M. Ortega

25 B. Cabrera

16 L. Carrizo

24 F. Escobar

26 R. Herrera

5 L. Regiardo

20 F. Guch

7 W. Mazzantti

9 M. Coccaro

32 S. Solari

Coach · Lucas Bernardi

Substitutes

31 · F. Sciarini

4 · A. Montero

22 · O. Salomon

23 · N. Goitea

15 · A. Sonora

27 · L. Gomez

19 · J. Gomez

99 · I. Ramirez

33 · W. Nunez

28 · J. Russo

36 · F. Scarpeccio

39 · T. Rios

Our number · gimnasia m. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 22:11 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gimnasia M. a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimnasia m. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia M. win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	31%	31%	0
Newells Old Boys win	25%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	39%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	21%	−2
Gimnasia M. or draw	75%	71%	+3
Gimnasia M. clean sheet	40%	–	–
Newells Old Boys clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.3 9.0 4.6 1 13.1 14.0 5.9 2 9.1 8.3 3.8 3 4.0 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia M. down, Newells Old Boys across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,779 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 431 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia M. at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Newells Old Boys away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gimnasia M., 0.92 for Newells Old Boys. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NEW 1–0 GIM

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

GIMNASIA M.

WWDLDL3–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–3

NEWELLS OLD BOYS

WDDDWD2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	32	+15	58
2	Argentinos JRS	31	+11	56
3	Rosario Central	31	+13	54
4	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
5	River Plate	31	+14	52
6	Independ. Rivadavia	29	+9	52
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	+13	45
11	Huracan	30	+5	43
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	+4	43
13	Lanus	28	+5	41
14	Independiente	28	+1	41
15	Barracas Central	28	+1	39
16	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
17	Union Santa Fe	30	−1	37
18	San Lorenzo	29	−6	37
19	Racing Club	30	−3	36
20	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
21	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
22	Tigre	28	+1	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	28	−6	31
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
26	Platense	28	−11	27
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	−16	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	28	−10	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	−29	11