Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 00:30

Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 Sarmiento Junin GIMNASIA L.P. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia L.P. win~~47%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia L.P. win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gimnasia L.P. was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–23
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Julián Contrera · Sarmiento Junin
14′We published Gimnasia L.P. at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Sarmiento Junin
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Gimnasia L.P. win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
15′13′: Ignacio Fernández on the scoresheet for Gimnasia L.P., making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
44′We published Gimnasia L.P. at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Sarmiento Junin
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Santiago Salle · Sarmiento Junin
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Sarmiento Junin
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarmiento Junin · On: Gaston Gonzalez · Off: Jonathan Herrera
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarmiento Junin · On: Ulises Adrian Gimenez · Off: Santiago Salle
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarmiento Junin · On: Jhon Rentería · Off: Julián Contrera
55′We published Gimnasia L.P. at 47%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
55′Gimnasia L.P. ahead on 54′ through Lucas Janson. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 Sarmiento Junin
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Gimnasia L.P. win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Gimnasia L.P.
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Gimnasia L.P. win: 47% at kick-off, 82% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Julian Mavilla · Sarmiento Junin
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sarmiento Junin · On: Pablo Daniel Magnin · Off: Jhon Rentería
65′We published Gimnasia L.P. at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Franco Ramón Torres · Off: Marcelo Torres
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Germán Conti · Gimnasia L.P.
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Gimnasia L.P. win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 Sarmiento Junin
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Gimnasia L.P. win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
75′Gimnasia L.P. ahead on 74′ through Franco Ramón Torres. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′We published Gimnasia L.P. at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Facundo Di Biasi · Off: Ignacio Fernández
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Nicolás Barros Schelotto · Off: Mateo Seoane
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Sergio Troncoso · Off: Lucas Janson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sarmiento Junin · On: Elián Giménez · Off: Mauricio Martínez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Elián Giménez · Sarmiento Junin
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 Sarmiento Junin
FTGimnasia L.P. 2–0 Sarmiento Junin · Gimnasia L.P. win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia L.P. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia L.P. 47%, draw 30%, Sarmiento Junin 23%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento JuninBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia L.P. win47%

Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

RefereeSebastian Nicolas Martinez

Line-ups

Gimnasia L.P.

4-3-1-2

Sarmiento Junin

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia L.P.

Sarmiento Junin

8Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	+3	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia L.P.

4-3-1-2

15 H. Castillo

25 A. Steimbach

13 G. Conti

21 E. Martínez

24 P. Silva

18 M. Seoane

5 I. Miramón

17 L. Janson

8 I. Fernández

32 M. Torres

29 A. Auzmendi

Coach · A. Pereyra

Substitutes

33 · P. Aguiar

10 · N. Schelotto

39 · F. Di Biasi

4 · R. Giampaoli

23 · N. Insfrán

16 · A. Max

22 · M. Melluso

7 · M. Panaro

26 · F. Torres

34 · Sergio Troncoso

9 · M. Zalazar

35 · J. Cortazzo

Sarmiento Junin

3-4-1-2

12 T. Ayala

44 R. Orihuela

2 J. Insaurralde

3 L. Suárez

8 S. Salle

16 Mauricio Leonel Martínez

15 C. Zabala

21 J. Mavilla

19 J. Contrera

27 J. Marabel

24 J. Herrera

Coach · Facundo Sava

Substitutes

26 · Y. Arismendi

10 · Jhon Rentería

77 · N. Pasquini

7 · P. Magnín

29 · T. Santamaría

1 · I. Arboleda

6 · G. Arturia

9 · D. Churín

5 · M. García

23 · E. Giménez

20 · U. Giménez

11 · G. González

Our number · gimnasia l.p. winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market60%

Us47%

~~Market~~60%

We make Gimnasia L.P. a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin~~1.34 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 21~~4 v 5

~~The market · Gimnasia L.P. win~~60% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia L.P. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia L.P. win	47%	60%	−13
Draw	30%	24%	+6
Sarmiento Junin win	23%	17%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	38%	51%	−13
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Gimnasia L.P. or draw	77%	83%	−6
Gimnasia L.P. clean sheet	42%	–	–
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.2 8.5 4.2 1 13.6 13.7 5.5 2 9.8 8.5 3.7 3 4.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia L.P. down, Sarmiento Junin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,798 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 450 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.22 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia L.P. at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sarmiento Junin away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Gimnasia L.P., 0.87 for Sarmiento Junin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.22

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAR 1–2 GIM · SAR 0–1 GIM · GIM 0–0 SAR · SAR 1–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept

GIMNASIA L.P.

WDDDDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

SARMIENTO JUNIN

WDLWDD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	+3	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	13	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8