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Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman

Gimnasia L.P.

1–1Full time

Atletico Tucuman

Liga Profesional Argentina · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 00:30

Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Atletico Tucuman GIMNASIA L.P. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gimnasia L.P. win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.739

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia L.P. win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman
2′Much as we predicted: Gimnasia L.P. was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
11′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Ignacio Fernández · Gimnasia L.P.
18′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Clever Domingo Ferreira Ñamandu · Atletico Tucuman
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Gimnasia L.P. win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia L.P. 0–0 Atletico Tucuman
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia L.P. 0–0 Atletico Tucuman
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Tucuman · On: Gabriel Compagnucci · Off: Iván Tesuri
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Rodrigo Agustín Colazo · Gimnasia L.P.
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Luis Ingolotti · Atletico Tucuman
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Tucuman · On: Ezequiel Ham · Off: Nicolás Laméndola
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Tucuman · On: Juan Infante · Off: Ignacio Galvan
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Alexis Steimbach · Off: Maximiliano Zalazar Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Franco Ramón Torres · Off: Bautista Barros Schelotto Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Julián Fernández · Atletico Tucuman
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Juan Pérez · Off: Lucas Janson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Marcelo Torres · Off: Rodrigo Agustín Colazo
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Franco Nicola · Atletico Tucuman
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gimnasia L.P. 0–1 Atletico Tucuman
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gimnasia L.P. 0–1 Atletico Tucuman · Lautaro Godoy
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gimnasia L.P. · On: Mariano Ojeda · Off: Matías Melluso
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Atletico Tucuman · On: Pedro Alexis Canelo · Off: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Atletico Tucuman · On: Maximiliano Villa · Off: Franco Nicola
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Atletico Tucuman · Lautaro Godoy
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Atletico Tucuman · Marcelo Torres
FTGimnasia L.P. 1–1 Atletico Tucuman · Gimnasia L.P. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gimnasia L.P. win44%

Draw31%

Atletico Tucuman win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Referee · Pablo Dovalo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gimnasia L.P.

4-4-2

23 N. Insfran

31 B. Barros Schelotto

13 German Conti

21 E. Martinez

22 M. Melluso

9 M. Zalazar

5 I. Miramon

8 N. Fernandez

17 L. Janson

19 A. Colazo

29 A. Auzmendi

Coach · Ariel Pereyra

Substitutes

15 · H. Castillo

35 · J. Cortazzo

4 · R. Giampaoli

16 · A. Max

18 · M. Seoane

10 · N. Schelotto

20 · J. Perez

25 · A. Steimbach

32 · M. Torres

7 · M. Panaro

26 · F. Torres

43 · M. Ojeda

Atletico Tucuman

4-1-4-1

1 L. Ingolotti

24 L. Di Placido

26 C. D. Ferreira Namandu

36 L. Vallejo

21 I. Galvan

5 J. Fernandez

11 R. Tesuri

31 L. Godoy

10 N. Franco

23 N. Lamendola

18 R. Ruiz

Coach · Julio Falcioni

Substitutes

25 · T. Durso

17 · J. Rodriguez

6 · G. Ferrari

3 · M. Villa

32 · J. Infante

27 · R. Granillo

8 · E. Ham

28 · G. Compagnucci

34 · M. Carrizo

14 · A. Canelo

22 · F. Pimienta

30 · M. Brondo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia L.P.

4-4-2

23 N. Insfran

31 B. Barros Schelotto

13 German Conti

21 E. Martinez

22 M. Melluso

9 M. Zalazar

5 I. Miramon

8 N. Fernandez

17 L. Janson

19 A. Colazo

29 A. Auzmendi

Coach · Ariel Pereyra

Substitutes

15 · H. Castillo

35 · J. Cortazzo

4 · R. Giampaoli

16 · A. Max

18 · M. Seoane

10 · N. Schelotto

20 · J. Perez

25 · A. Steimbach

32 · M. Torres

7 · M. Panaro

26 · F. Torres

43 · M. Ojeda

Atletico Tucuman

4-1-4-1

1 L. Ingolotti

24 L. Di Placido

26 C. D. Ferreira Namandu

36 L. Vallejo

21 I. Galvan

5 J. Fernandez

11 R. Tesuri

31 L. Godoy

10 N. Franco

23 N. Lamendola

18 R. Ruiz

Coach · Julio Falcioni

Substitutes

25 · T. Durso

17 · J. Rodriguez

6 · G. Ferrari

3 · M. Villa

32 · J. Infante

27 · R. Granillo

8 · E. Ham

28 · G. Compagnucci

34 · M. Carrizo

14 · A. Canelo

22 · F. Pimienta

30 · M. Brondo

Our number · gimnasia l.p. winPublished 9 Oct 22:04

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Gimnasia L.P. a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia L.P. win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Atletico Tucuman win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	45%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Gimnasia L.P. or draw	75%	78%	−3
Gimnasia L.P. clean sheet	41%	–	–
Atletico Tucuman clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.5 9.0 4.5 1 13.4 14.0 5.8 2 9.3 8.3 3.7 3 4.0 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia L.P. down, Atletico Tucuman across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,767 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 419 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.56 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia L.P. at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Tucuman away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gimnasia L.P., 0.89 for Atletico Tucuman. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.56

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~1 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 GIM · GIM 1–0 ATL · ATL 0–1 GIM · GIM 1–0 ATL

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

GIMNASIA L.P.

LWWDDD2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

ATLETICO TUCUMAN

DDWLLL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
4	Boca Juniors	28	+19	51
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	29	−1	47
9	Instituto Cordoba	27	+9	46
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
16	Racing Club	29	−1	36
17	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
18	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
19	Sarmiento Junin	26	−6	35
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	27	−7	28
25	Atletico Tucuman	27	−5	27
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	27	−18	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11