Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Gimnasia L.P. prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Estudiantes de Rio CuartoDrawGimnasia L.P.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gimnasia L.P. 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia L.P. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 29%, draw 33%, Gimnasia L.P. 38%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Gimnasia L.P.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win29%

Draw33%

Gimnasia L.P. win38%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Gimnasia L.P.

12Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia l.p. winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

38% The market56%

Us38%

~~Market~~56%

We make Gimnasia L.P. a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Gimnasia L.P.~~0.93 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 25~~14 v 3

~~The market · Gimnasia L.P. win~~56% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia L.P. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	33%	28%	+5
Gimnasia L.P. win	38%	56%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Both teams to score	41%	40%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	19%	−4
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw	62%	44%	+18
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gimnasia L.P. clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 13.4 8.0 3.0 1 11.1 14.4 7.3 2.7 2 5.7 6.1 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto down, Gimnasia L.P. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,800 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 452 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia L.P. away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 1.10 for Gimnasia L.P.. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GIM 1–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO

LLLLLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

GIMNASIA L.P.

DDDDWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	13	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	0	17
11	Tigre	14	−3	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8