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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Aldosivi

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

2–1Full time

Aldosivi

Liga Profesional Argentina · SUN 18 OCT · Antonio Candini

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 Aldosivi ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Aldosivi
2′Little has changed for our model: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–28
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Fernando Rodríguez · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
29′Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–39–26
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win 34%)
32′8 shots for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 34–40–26
45′HALF-TIME Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–0 Aldosivi
45′SECOND HALF Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–0 Aldosivi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aldosivi · On: Tomás Fernández · Off: Matias Godoy
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Facundo Cobos · Off: Fernando Rodríguez
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aldosivi · On: Andres Vombergar · Off: Nicolás Gaitán
51′We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Agustín Quiroga · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
60′We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–19
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Lucas Castro · Aldosivi
66′Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 21–62–17
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Tomás González · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Aldosivi · On: Bautista Dadín · Off: Lucas Castro
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Aldosivi · On: Andrés Chávez · Off: Nicolás Cordero
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
69′We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Aldosivi
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Aldosivi win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
71′Agustín Palavecino scores for Aldosivi on 68′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aldosivi · On: Natanael Guzmán · Off: Agustín Palavecino
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Siro Rosané · Off: Tomás González
81′16 shots for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 10 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Martín Garnerone · Off: Agustín Quiroga
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · On: Juan Garro · Off: Mauro Valiente
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–88–5
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–1 Aldosivi
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Aldosivi win 5%)
86′85′: Ibrahim Hesar on the scoresheet for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–89–5
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Juan Antonini · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
87′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–1 · 5–90–4
87′Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ahead on 87′ through Gabriel Alanis. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 Aldosivi · Gabriel Alanis
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
88′We said Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
89′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 Aldosivi
FTEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 Aldosivi · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 40%, draw 32%, Aldosivi 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v AldosiviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win40%

Draw32%

Aldosivi win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueAntonio Candini

RefereeAndres Gariano

Line-ups

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

5-3-2

Aldosivi

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Aldosivi

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Aldosivi	12	−7	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	12	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

5-3-2

38 L. Herrera

6 J. Antonini

2 G. Maffini

30 S. Ojeda

29 A. Quiroga

23 F. Rodriguez

10 T. Gonzalez

5 A. Cabrera

17 G. Alanis

77 I. Hesar

22 M. Valiente

Coach · Ruben Forestello

Substitutes

12 · F. Gualiteri

3 · L. Banos

28 · F. Cobos

31 · M. Valenti

8 · S. Rosane

24 · T. Escobar

27 · J. Garro

11 · M. Garnerone

99 · J. Chala

9 · J. Ferreira

20 · B. Moyano

18 · J. Rivero

Aldosivi

4-4-1-1

23 I. Chicco

28 S. Moya

25 N. Breitenbruch

32 J. Pombo

13 B. Cufre

11 A. Palavecino

8 M. Garcia

19 L. Castro

21 M. Godoy

10 N. Gaitan

9 N. Cordero

Coach · Javier Sanguinetti

Substitutes

12 · K. Baez

33 · N. Zalazar

17 · F. Laurelli

15 · F. Perruzzi

37 · P. Argoytia

18 · A. Chavez

27 · T. Fernandez

16 · B. Dadin

29 · A. Vombergar

7 · N. Guzman

24 · F. Anso

26 · S. Sammarone

Our number · estudiantes de rio cuarto winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Aldosivi~~1.15 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~15 v 14

~~The market · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win~~33% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win	40%	33%	+7
Draw	32%	33%	−1
Aldosivi win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Both teams to score	42%	41%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	16%	16%	0
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw	72%	66%	+6
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto clean sheet	40%	–	–
Aldosivi clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.9 10.6 5.4 1 13.3 14.2 6.1 2 8.2 7.5 3.5 3 3.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto down, Aldosivi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,791 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 443 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aldosivi away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 0.93 for Aldosivi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALD 0–0 EST · EST 2–2 ALD · ALD 1–1 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 29 Aug

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

ALDOSIVI

LWLWLL1–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	12	+7	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	12	+3	20
6	Huracan	13	0	19
7	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
8	Barracas Central	12	+1	18
9	River Plate	12	+2	17
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	12	−6	11
14	Aldosivi	12	−7	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	12	−10	6