Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 04:05

Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa Fe DEPORTIVO RIESTRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Riestra win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Riestra win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Riestra 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–27
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Deportivo Riestra win 37%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportivo Riestra win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Union Santa Fe
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Union Santa Fe
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Marcelo Estigarriba · Union Santa Fe
51′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–52–20
51′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Deportivo Riestra 1–0 Union Santa Fe
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Deportivo Riestra win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Deportivo Riestra win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 52%)
52′50′: Juan Cruz Randazzo on the scoresheet for Deportivo Riestra, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
53′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa Fe
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Deportivo Riestra win: 40% at kick-off, 25% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Deportivo Riestra win 81%)
58′Union Santa Fe level it on 57′ through Tobias Javier Rubio. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–57–18
59′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Deportivo Riestra · On: Carlos Quintana · Off: Juan Cruz Randazzo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Riestra · On: Tomás González · Off: Braian Sánchez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo Riestra · On: Nicolas Benegas · Off: Alexander Díaz
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Deportivo Riestra win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
68′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Riestra · On: Pedro Ramírez · Off: Facundo Miño
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Union Santa Fe · On: Mauro Luna Diale · Off: Brahian Cuello
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Riestra · On: Jonathan Goitia · Off: Antony Alonso
75′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Deportivo Riestra win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
81′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Union Santa Fe · On: Erik Ramirez · Off: Julián Palacios
89′We said Deportivo Riestra at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Union Santa Fe · On: Victor Malcorra · Off: Joaquin Mosqueira
90′1–1 at the end. Our 40% on Deportivo Riestra misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Nicolás Sansotre · Deportivo Riestra
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa Fe
FTDeportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa Fe · Deportivo Riestra win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Riestra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Riestra 40%, draw 33%, Union Santa Fe 27%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa FeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Riestra win40%

Draw33%

Union Santa Fe win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 01:15

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Guillermo Laza

RefereePablo Echavarria

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra

5-4-1

Union Santa Fe

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Riestra

Union Santa Fe

9Days since last match10

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra

5-4-1

1 I. Arce

36 M. Bracamonte

24 F. Miño

19 J. Randazzo

22 C. Paz

15 N. Sansotre

10 B. Sánchez

8 M. Céliz

16 N. Watson

7 Antony Daniel Alonso Espinoza

11 A. Díaz

Coach · G. Duró

Substitutes

9 · N. Benegas

13 · R. Gallo

6 · I. Gariglio

27 · J. Goitía

21 · T. González

29 · M. Graneros

20 · T. Lauro

14 · P. Monje

40 · G. Obredor

2 · C. Quintana

5 · P. Ramírez

23 · M. Arzamendia

Union Santa Fe

4-4-2

21 M. Mansilla

27 T. Rubio

4 M. Rocha

26 J. Ludueña

18 L. Ayala

20 J. Palacios

34 Mateo Peresutti

17 J. Mosqueira

22 B. Cuello

19 M. Estigarribia

25 C. Tarragona

Coach · Leonardo Madelon

Substitutes

11 · M. Luna Diale

33 · I. Isla

8 · E. Giaccone

38 · V. J. Cerrudo

36 · M. Aimar

31 · M. Aguirre

10 · V. Malcorra

40 · L. Meuli

15 · J. Pintado

12 · B. Pittón

43 · E. Ramírez

23 · A. Solari

Our number · deportivo riestra winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Deportivo Riestra a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe~~1.08 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~12 v 11

~~The market · Deportivo Riestra win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Riestra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Riestra win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	33%	32%	+1
Union Santa Fe win	27%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−4
Deportivo Riestra or draw	73%	75%	−2
Deportivo Riestra clean sheet	43%	–	–
Union Santa Fe clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.8%

0123450 15.8 11.2 5.2 1 14.7 14.3 5.6 2 8.5 7.1 3.0 3 3.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Riestra down, Union Santa Fe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,795 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 447 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Riestra at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Union Santa Fe away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Deportivo Riestra, 0.84 for Union Santa Fe. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 00:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–0 DEP · UNI 0–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 28 Aug

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA

DDLDDL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

UNION SANTA FE

WWLLLL4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	+6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
5	Lanus	13	+7	23
6	Gimnasia M.	13	+2	20
7	Independiente	13	−1	19
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
9	San Lorenzo	13	−5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	+1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11
13	Platense	13	−7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	−8	9