Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensa Y Justicia win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensa Y Justicia win at 44%.
0′KICK-OFF Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba
2′Much as we predicted: Defensa Y Justicia was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
23′A goal for Instituto Cordoba on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Defensa Y Justicia win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Instituto Cordoba win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Defensa Y Justicia win 16%)
24′Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro scores for Instituto Cordoba on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
25′We said Defensa Y Justicia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–59
30′We said Defensa Y Justicia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Defensa Y Justicia win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba
45′SECOND HALF Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba
46′9 shots for Defensa Y Justicia, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 10–25–65
48′We said Defensa Y Justicia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Damián Fernández · Defensa Y Justicia
56′Defensa Y Justicia have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Instituto Cordoba · On: Facundo Ezquel Suarez · Off: Matías Tissera
66′We said Defensa Y Justicia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Defensa Y Justicia win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Ayrton Portillo · Off: Valentín Pucheta Loza
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Tiziano Perrotta · Off: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Instituto Cordoba · On: Jonas Acevedo · Off: Alex Luna
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Instituto Cordoba · On: Juan Andrés Meli · Off: Hernán De La Fuente
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Instituto Cordoba · On: Jhon Córdoba · Off: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
77′Defensa Y Justicia have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Aaron Molinas · Off: Maximiliano Porcel
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Defensa Y Justicia at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Defensa Y Justicia · On: Agustin Hausch · Off: Demian Leonel Dominguez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Instituto Cordoba · On: Juan Ignacio Méndez · Off: Gustavo Abregú
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Aaron Molinas · Defensa Y Justicia
FTFULL TIME Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba
FTDefensa Y Justicia 0–1 Instituto Cordoba · Defensa Y Justicia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Defensa Y Justicia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Defensa Y Justicia 44%, draw 29%, Instituto Cordoba 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto CordobaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Defensa Y Justicia win44%

Draw29%

Instituto Cordoba win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Norberto Tomaghello

RefereeAndres Merlos

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia

4-2-3-1

Instituto Cordoba

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Defensa Y Justicia

Instituto Cordoba

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia

4-2-3-1

1 M. Borgogno

28 V. Loza

29 D. Fernandez

21 D. Martinez

30 D. Dominguez

22 M. Porcel

8 C. Perez

26 J. Lucco

19 D. Barbona

24 J. Gutierrez

9 L. Fernandez

Coach · Julio Vaccari

Substitutes

36 · L. Amade

16 · A. Portillo

32 · N. Roselli

6 · E. Burdin

5 · J. Lopez

17 · A. Hausch

45 · T. Martinez

10 · A. Molinas

20 · N. Palavecino

40 · M. Rodriguez

27 · D. Blanco

11 · T. Perrotta

Instituto Cordoba

3-4-3

29 M. Ledesma

30 J. Galvan

26 L. Mosevich

6 F. R. Alarcon

2 H. De La Fuente

55 G. Abregu

15 M. Gallardo

3 D. Sosa

21 J. Lazaro

17 M. Tissera

10 A. Luna

Coach · Diego Flores

Substitutes

35 · E. O. Sittaro Miranda

22 · A. Massaccesi

32 · A. Bravo

19 · L. Sanseviero

23 · A. Meli

13 · J. Mendez

8 · J. Acevedo

14 · W. Viera

9 · F. Suarez

20 · J. E. Cordoba Mosquera

7 · N. Guerra

11 · M. Fonseca

Our number · defensa y justicia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Defensa Y Justicia a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba~~1.39 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 26~~2 v 1

~~The market · Defensa Y Justicia win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Defensa Y Justicia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensa Y Justicia win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Instituto Cordoba win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Defensa Y Justicia or draw	73%	69%	+4
Defensa Y Justicia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Instituto Cordoba clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.2 8.1 4.7 1 11.3 13.7 6.5 2.2 2 8.6 8.7 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensa Y Justicia down, Instituto Cordoba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,784 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.4% of games this season, across 436 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensa Y Justicia at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Instituto Cordoba away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Defensa Y Justicia, 1.02 for Instituto Cordoba. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~INS 2–0 DEF · INS 4–1 DEF · DEF 1–0 INS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 31 Aug

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA

WLWDWW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

INSTITUTO CORDOBA

WLWWWD1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	12	+9	26
2	Defensa Y Justicia	12	+7	24
3	Boca Juniors	12	+6	21
4	Velez Sarsfield	12	+4	21
5	Lanus	12	+6	20
6	Gimnasia M.	12	+3	20
7	Independiente	12	−1	18
8	Newells Old Boys	12	+2	17
9	Estudiantes L.P.	12	+2	14
10	San Lorenzo	12	−6	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	−4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	−3	11
13	Platense	12	−6	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	−6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	12	−7	9