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Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield

Central Cordoba de Santiago

00:30Upcoming

Velez Sarsfield

Liga Profesional Argentina · MON 26 OCT · Estadio Alfredo Terrera

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Central Cordoba de SantiagoDrawVelez Sarsfield

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Velez Sarsfield 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Velez Sarsfield just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Cordoba de Santiago 32%, draw 32%, Velez Sarsfield 36%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez SarsfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Central Cordoba de Santiago win32%

Draw32%

Velez Sarsfield win36%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 00:30

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Alfredo Terrera

RefereePablo Echavarria

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Velez Sarsfield

7Days since last match9

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velez sarsfield winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market42%

Us36%

~~Market~~42%

We make Velez Sarsfield a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield~~1.03 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 24~~14 v 5

~~The market · Velez Sarsfield win~~42% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Velez Sarsfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Cordoba de Santiago win	32%	29%	+3
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Velez Sarsfield win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw	64%	58%	+6
Central Cordoba de Santiago clean sheet	33%	–	–
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 13.1 11.9 7.2 2.7 1 11.1 14.5 7.4 2.7 2 6.3 6.9 3.8 3 2.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Cordoba de Santiago down, Velez Sarsfield across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,803 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 455 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Velez Sarsfield away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago, 1.10 for Velez Sarsfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VEL 1–0 CEN · VEL 2–0 CEN · VEL 0–1 CEN · CEN 0–2 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO

LLDDDL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

VELEZ SARSFIELD

WDWDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group A

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	+10	29
2	Defensa Y Justicia	14	+7	27
3	Boca Juniors	13	+7	24
4	Lanus	14	+7	24
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	+5	24
6	Newells Old Boys	13	+3	20
7	Gimnasia M.	14	+1	20
8	Independiente	13	−1	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	−5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	+1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	−4	14
12	Platense	14	−6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	−3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	−7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	−9	9