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Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P.

Central Cordoba de Santiago

2–2Full time

Estudiantes L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P. ESTUDIANTES L.P. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estudiantes L.P. win~~37%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.709

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estudiantes L.P. win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Estudiantes L.P. 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
23′22′ and it is 0–1: Miguel Monsalve on the scoresheet for Estudiantes L.P.. 0–1 · 10–21–69
26′We said Estudiantes L.P. at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
35′8.0 shots for Central Cordoba de Santiago, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 8–21–71
38′Michael Santos scores for Central Cordoba de Santiago on 38′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 68–23–9
41′We said Estudiantes L.P. at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 69–22–8
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 9%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Estudiantes L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Central Cordoba de Santiago win 32%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 8%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 8%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Estudiantes L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Central Cordoba de Santiago win 32%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 8%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Estudiantes L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Central Cordoba de Santiago win 32%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 8%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Estudiantes L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Central Cordoba de Santiago win 32%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Estudiantes L.P. win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Central Cordoba de Santiago win 32%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Estudiantes L.P. win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Central Cordoba de Santiago win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Estudiantes L.P. win 8%)
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Alexander Jesús Medina Reobasco · Estudiantes L.P.
45′⚽ GOAL · 50' Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 Estudiantes L.P. · Edwuin Cetre
45′HALF-TIME Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P.
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P. · Edwuin Cetre
46′SECOND HALF Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P.
57′⚽ GOAL · 50' Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P. · Edwuin Cetre
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Tiago Palacios · Off: Fabricio Pérez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez · Off: Alexis Castro
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Enzo Tiziano Ramirez Suarez · Off: Matías Vera
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Joaquín Tobio Burgos · Off: Miguel Monsalve
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Horacio Tijanovich · Off: Leonardo Sequeira
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Martín Francisco Cuitiño · Off: Michael Santos
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Lucas Alario · Off: Tiago Tomas Palacios
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Central Cordoba de Santiago · On: Yuri Casermeiro · Off: Lucas González
FTFULL TIME Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P.
FTCentral Cordoba de Santiago 2–2 Estudiantes L.P. · Estudiantes L.P. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Central Cordoba de Santiago win32%

Draw31%

Estudiantes L.P. win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Referee · Andres Gariano

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Central Cordoba de Santiago

4-1-4-1

1 A. Aguerre

20 F. Martinez

21 F. Aguilar

2 A. R. Maciel

23 D. Caceres

22 M. Vera

28 L. Sequeira

10 M. Iacobellis

18 L. Gonzalez

7 D. Barrera

27 M. Santos

Coach · Sebastian Dominguez

Substitutes

25 · J. Vallejos

13 · J. Gomez

17 · Y. Casermeiro

3 · L. Marchi

32 · N. Garrido

44 · J. Ibanez

41 · T. Ramirez

55 · J. Cardozo

11 · H. Tijanovich

9 · L. Varaldo

43 · I. Santillan

47 · M. Cuitino

Estudiantes L.P.

4-2-3-1

1 F. Iacovich

15 S. Arzamendia

14 L. Gonzalez Pirez

26 R. Funes Mori

24 T. Palacios

52 B. Kociubinski

22 A. Castro

29 Perez Fabricio

34 M. Monsalve

18 E. Cetre

19 A. Gaich

Coach · Alexander Medina

Substitutes

12 · R. Borzone

13 · G. Benedetti

40 · E. Mancuso

3 · M. Desabato

7 · J. Sosa

21 · L. Piovi

10 · T. Palacios

31 · B. Rodriguez

53 · L. Alcaraz

28 · B. Aguirre

27 · L. Alario

17 · J. Burgos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Central Cordoba de Santiago

4-1-4-1

1 A. Aguerre

20 F. Martinez

21 F. Aguilar

2 A. R. Maciel

23 D. Caceres

22 M. Vera

28 L. Sequeira

10 M. Iacobellis

18 L. Gonzalez

7 D. Barrera

27 M. Santos

Coach · Sebastian Dominguez

Substitutes

25 · J. Vallejos

13 · J. Gomez

17 · Y. Casermeiro

3 · L. Marchi

32 · N. Garrido

44 · J. Ibanez

41 · T. Ramirez

55 · J. Cardozo

11 · H. Tijanovich

9 · L. Varaldo

43 · I. Santillan

47 · M. Cuitino

Estudiantes L.P.

4-2-3-1

1 F. Iacovich

15 S. Arzamendia

14 L. Gonzalez Pirez

26 R. Funes Mori

24 T. Palacios

52 B. Kociubinski

22 A. Castro

29 Perez Fabricio

34 M. Monsalve

18 E. Cetre

19 A. Gaich

Coach · Alexander Medina

Substitutes

12 · R. Borzone

13 · G. Benedetti

40 · E. Mancuso

3 · M. Desabato

7 · J. Sosa

21 · L. Piovi

10 · T. Palacios

31 · B. Rodriguez

53 · L. Alcaraz

28 · B. Aguirre

27 · L. Alario

17 · J. Burgos

Our number · estudiantes l.p. winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

37% The market34%

Us37%

~~Market~~34%

We make Estudiantes L.P. a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · estudiantes l.p. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Cordoba de Santiago win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	31%	33%	−1
Estudiantes L.P. win	37%	34%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	36%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	45%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	62%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	18%	0
Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw	63%	66%	−3
Central Cordoba de Santiago clean sheet	32%	–	–
Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 12.3 11.5 7.3 2.8 1 10.4 14.4 7.6 3.0 2 6.1 7.0 4.0 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Cordoba de Santiago down, Estudiantes L.P. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,770 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 422 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Estudiantes L.P. away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago, 1.16 for Estudiantes L.P.. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 5–0 CEN · CEN 0–1 EST · CEN 2–0 EST · EST 3–2 CEN

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO

LDLLDD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

ESTUDIANTES L.P.

LDLWLW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
16	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
17	Racing Club	29	−1	36
18	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
25	Banfield	27	−7	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11