Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:00

Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 River Plate RIVER PLATE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said River Plate win~~36%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said River Plate win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: River Plate was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 32–32–36
1′KICK-OFF Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was River Plate win 33%)
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Belgrano Cordoba
30′A red card for Belgrano Cordoba on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 29–39–32
42′7 shots for River Plate, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–44–29
45′We published River Plate at 36%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′HALF-TIME Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 River Plate
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' Adrian Sanchez · Belgrano Cordoba
45′SECOND HALF Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 River Plate
47′We published River Plate at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 River Plate
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' River Plate win: 36% at kick-off, 75% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' River Plate win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
48′45′: Tomás Ezequiel Galván on the scoresheet for River Plate, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
48′We published River Plate at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Belgrano Cordoba 0–2 River Plate
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' River Plate win: 36% at kick-off, 95% now
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–19–76 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′River Plate ahead on 49′ through Ángel Correa. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' River Plate win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Franco Vázquez · Belgrano Cordoba
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' River Plate win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lisandro López · Belgrano Cordoba
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Lucas Beltran · River Plate
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Belgrano Cordoba · On: Nicolás Fernández · Off: Lucas Passerini
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Belgrano Cordoba · On: Ramiro Tulián · Off: Ramiro Hernandes
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' River Plate · On: Fausto Vera · Off: Tobías Andrada
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' River Plate · On: Sebastián Driussi · Off: Lucas Beltran
72′We published River Plate at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 River Plate
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
73′Thiago Almada scores for River Plate on 72′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' River Plate · On: Giovanni Gonzalez · Off: Gonzalo Montiel
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Belgrano Cordoba · On: Juan Velázquez · Off: Adrian Spörle
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Belgrano Cordoba · On: Francisco González Metilli · Off: Franco Vázquez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Belgrano Cordoba · On: Lautaro Ismael Gutierrez · Off: Emiliano Rigoni
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' River Plate · On: Juan Cruz Meza · Off: Fausto Vera
90′Full time, 0–3. We called River Plate at 36% — that one lands. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Belgrano Cordoba 0–4 River Plate
92′90′: Ángel Correa on the scoresheet for River Plate, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' River Plate
FTFULL TIME Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 River Plate
FTBelgrano Cordoba 0–3 River Plate · River Plate win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with River Plate just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Belgrano Cordoba 32%, draw 32%, River Plate 36%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Belgrano Cordoba v River PlateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Belgrano Cordoba win32%

Draw32%

River Plate win36%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:15

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Julio César Villagra

RefereePablo Dovalo

Line-ups

Belgrano Cordoba

4-2-3-1

River Plate

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Belgrano Cordoba

River Plate

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 14 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Belgrano Cordoba	12	+7	22
9	River Plate	12	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Belgrano Cordoba

4-2-3-1

25 T. Cardozo

14 L. Morales

2 A. Maldonado

17 L. Lopez

3 A. Sporle

21 A. Sanchez

20 F. Vazquez

24 E. Rigoni

10 L. Zelarayan

8 R. Hernandes

9 L. Passerini

Coach · Ricardo Zielinski

Substitutes

23 · M. Vicentini

16 · F. Ricca

26 · A. J. Benitez Cabrera

45 · A. Falcon

13 · A. Ocampo

37 · L. Gutierrez

5 · S. Longo

15 · R. Tulian

22 · N. Fernandez

11 · F. Gonzalez

30 · G. Zelarayan

53 · J. Velazquez

River Plate

4-1-3-2

41 S. Beltran

29 G. Montiel

28 L. Martinez Quarta

30 N. Otamendi

3 F. Ortega

6 A. Moreno

50 T. Andrada

23 T. Almada

26 T. Galvan

10 A. Correa

18 L. Beltran

Coach · Leonardo Ponzio

Substitutes

33 · E. Centurion

20 · G. Gonzalez

2 · T. Ramirez

13 · L. Rivero

31 · F. Gonzalez

8 · M. Arambarri

24 · J. Meza

15 · Fausto Vera

27 · S. Espindola

25 · L. Pereyra

9 · S. Driussi

19 · R. Borre

Our number · river plate winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market43%

Us36%

~~Market~~43%

We make River Plate a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate~~1.00 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~3 v 9

~~The market · River Plate win~~43% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · River Plate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belgrano Cordoba win	32%	27%	+5
Draw	32%	31%	+1
River Plate win	36%	43%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−3
Belgrano Cordoba or draw	64%	57%	+7
Belgrano Cordoba clean sheet	34%	–	–
River Plate clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.6 12.4 7.3 2.7 1 11.3 14.4 7.2 2.7 2 6.2 6.7 3.6 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Belgrano Cordoba down, River Plate across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,791 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 443 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Belgrano Cordoba at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). River Plate away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Belgrano Cordoba, 1.09 for River Plate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~RIV 2–3 BEL · RIV 3–0 BEL · RIV 3–0 BEL · RIV 2–1 BEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug

BELGRANO CORDOBA

DDDWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

RIVER PLATE

WWWLWD3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	12	+7	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	12	+3	20
6	Huracan	13	0	19
7	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
8	Barracas Central	12	+1	18
9	River Plate	12	+2	17
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	−1	14
11	Tigre	13	−2	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	12	−6	11
14	Aldosivi	12	−7	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	12	−10	6