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Barracas Central v Huracan

Barracas Central

2–0Full time

Huracan

Liga Profesional Argentina · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Barracas Central 2–0 Huracan DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~35%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.721

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 33% now. 0–0 · 34–33–33
5′Much as we predicted: the draw was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–34–32
8′Norberto Briasco scores for Barracas Central on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
11′We said the draw at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 69–22–10
15′Norberto Briasco scores for Barracas Central on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
21′We said the draw at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Barracas Central win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Huracan · On: Ignacio Pussetto · Off: Facundo Kalinger di Napoli
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Huracan · On: Ignacio Pussetto · Off: Facundo Kalinger di Napoli
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Barracas Central 1–0 Huracan · Norberto Briasco
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Barracas Central 2–0 Huracan · Norberto Briasco
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Fabio Pereyra · Huracan
70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barracas Central · On: Esteban Rolón · Off: Rodrigo Bogarin
70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barracas Central · On: Tomás Lavezzi · Off: Norberto Briasco
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Huracan · On: Bruno Barticciotto · Off: Oscar Cortes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Huracan · On: Leonardo Gil · Off: Facundo Waller
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barracas Central · On: Rafael Barrios · Off: Kevin Jappert
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Barracas Central · On: Facundo Bruera · Off: Nicolas Orsini
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Barracas Central · On: Rodrigo Insua · Off: Elías Pereyra
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Huracan · On: Leandro Lescano · Off: Cesar Ibañez
FTFULL TIME Barracas Central 2–0 Huracan
FTBarracas Central 2–0 Huracan · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Barracas Central win33%

Draw35%

Huracan win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Referee · Hernan Mastrangelo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Barracas Central

4-4-2

30 M. Mino

14 K. Jappert

15 Y. Rak

31 N. Demartini

17 E. Pereyra

28 R. Bogarin

5 D. Miloc

10 I. Tapia

24 E. Taborda

34 N. Orsini

11 N. Briasco

Coach · Damian Ayude

Substitutes

1 · J. Espinola

37 · G. Campi

13 · R. Barrios

2 · N. Capraro

33 · G. Maroni

35 · E. Rolon

36 · T. Lavezzi

77 · F. Bruera

6 · R. Insua

23 · W. Rivera

16 · I. A. Guaraz

22 · G. Valentino

Huracan

4-2-3-1

1 H. Galindez

2 L. Blondel

6 F. Pereyra

35 M. Palazzo

25 C. Ibanez

5 Rodrigo Fernandez

15 F. F. Waller Martiarena

7 O. Cortes

24 F. Kalinger

17 J. Bisanz

9 J. Caicedo

Coach · Diego Martinez

Substitutes

32 · S. Meza

4 · F. Vera

34 · I. Campo

21 · H. Nervo

19 · L. Lescano

20 · E. Ojeda

11 · T. Peralta

10 · O. Romero

8 · L. Gil

41 · L. Mora

23 · I. Pussetto

33 · B. Barticciotto

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Barracas Central

4-4-2

30 M. Mino

14 K. Jappert

15 Y. Rak

31 N. Demartini

17 E. Pereyra

28 R. Bogarin

5 D. Miloc

10 I. Tapia

24 E. Taborda

34 N. Orsini

11 N. Briasco

Coach · Damian Ayude

Substitutes

1 · J. Espinola

37 · G. Campi

13 · R. Barrios

2 · N. Capraro

33 · G. Maroni

35 · E. Rolon

36 · T. Lavezzi

77 · F. Bruera

6 · R. Insua

23 · W. Rivera

16 · I. A. Guaraz

22 · G. Valentino

Huracan

4-2-3-1

1 H. Galindez

2 L. Blondel

6 F. Pereyra

35 M. Palazzo

25 C. Ibanez

5 Rodrigo Fernandez

15 F. F. Waller Martiarena

7 O. Cortes

24 F. Kalinger

17 J. Bisanz

9 J. Caicedo

Coach · Diego Martinez

Substitutes

32 · S. Meza

4 · F. Vera

34 · I. Campo

21 · H. Nervo

19 · L. Lescano

20 · E. Ojeda

11 · T. Peralta

10 · O. Romero

8 · L. Gil

41 · L. Mora

23 · I. Pussetto

33 · B. Barticciotto

Our number · drawPublished 10 Oct 19:30

35% The market35%

Us35%

~~Market~~35%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barracas Central win	33%	31%	+3
Draw	35%	35%	+1
Huracan win	32%	35%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Both teams to score	36%	38%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Over 3.5 goals	11%	14%	−3
Barracas Central or draw	68%	65%	+3
Barracas Central clean sheet	41%	–	–
Huracan clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.9%

0123450 17.9 13.5 6.5 1 13.9 14.4 5.9 2 6.9 6.1 2.7 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barracas Central down, Huracan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,770 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 422 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.71 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barracas Central at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Huracan away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Barracas Central, 0.88 for Huracan. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~HUR 0–0 BAR · BAR 1–1 HUR · HUR 0–1 BAR · BAR 0–2 HUR

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

BARRACAS CENTRAL

LDDDLW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

HURACAN

DDDWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Boca Juniors	29	+19	52
4	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	30	−1	48
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	+9	47
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Sarmiento Junin	27	−4	38
16	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
17	Racing Club	29	−1	36
18	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
19	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Atletico Tucuman	28	−5	28
25	Banfield	27	−7	28
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	28	−20	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11