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Model 1.2

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Banfield v Lanus

Banfield
1–1Full time
Lanus

Liga Profesional Argentina · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Florencio Sola

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15
Banfield 1–1 Lanus LANUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Lanus win36%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.700
The market’s Brier score0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lanus win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lanus 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–32–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Banfield v Lanus
  4. 20′We said Lanus at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  5. 20′Banfield score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Banfield 1–0 Lanus
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Lanus win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
  8. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Banfield win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Lanus win 35%)
  9. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  10. 34′We said Lanus at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  11. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Carlos Izquierdoz · Lanus
  12. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Tomas Adoryan · Banfield
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Banfield 1–0 Lanus
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Banfield 1–0 Lanus
  15. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Lanus win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  16. 58′We said Lanus at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  17. 62′We said Lanus at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 20–57–22
  18. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Banfield 1–1 Lanus
  19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Lanus win: 36% at kick-off, 22% now
  20. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Banfield win 78%)
  21. 64′Lanus level it on 62′ through Carlos Izquierdoz. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–59–21
  22. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Banfield · On: Alexander Machado · Off: David Zalazar
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Banfield · On: Favio Álvarez · Off: Tomas Adoryan
  24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lanus · On: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos · Off: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
  25. 68′We said Lanus at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–63–19
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Lanus win: 36% at kick-off, 15% now
  27. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Lautaro Martín Gómez · Banfield
  28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Agustín Cardozo · Lanus
  29. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lanus · On: benjamin acosta · Off: Matías Sepúlveda
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lanus · On: Ramiro Carrera · Off: Eduardo Salvio
  31. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Adrián Balboa · Banfield
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Banfield · On: Lisandro Geronimo Piñero · Off: Federico Medina
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lanus · On: Felipe Peña Biafore · Off: Agustín Cardozo
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lanus · On: Yoshan Valois · Off: Allan Steven Wlk Duré
  35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Lanus win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Banfield
  37. 88′Banfield are down to ten from 86′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 4–91–5
  38. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Banfield · On: Santiago López García · Off: Adrián Balboa
  39. 99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Ramiro Carrera · Lanus
  40. FTFULL TIME Banfield 1–1 Lanus
  41. FTBanfield 1–1 Lanus · Lanus win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lanus just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Banfield 32%, draw 32%, Lanus 36%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Banfield v LanusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Banfield win32%
Draw32%
Lanus win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:45

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Florencio Sola

RefereeFacundo Tello

Line-ups

Banfield

4-3-3

Lanus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Banfield

Lanus

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Banfield

4-3-3

50 D. Rodríguez

4 J. Alfaro

2 S. Daniele

6 N. Meriano

27 I. Abraham

10 L. Gómez

5 Santiago Esquivel

20 T. Adoryán

18 Federico Medina

9 A. Balboa

40 D. Zalazar

Coach · P. Troglio

Substitutes

11 · F. Álvarez

21 · L. Villegas

25 · G. Santilli

28 · M. Hernández

19 · L. Cano

30 · F. Anselmo

24 · S. López

22 · A. Machado

37 · R. Malanca

13 · Brandon Oviedo

3 · N. Paz

7 · Lisandro Piñero

Lanus

4-2-3-1

26 N. Losada

33 T. Guidara

24 C. Izquierdoz

13 J. Canale

6 S. Marcich

17 A. Medina

30 A. Cardozo

16 M. Sepúlveda

11 E. Salvio

77 L. Besozzi

20 A. Wlk

Coach · M. Pellegrino

Substitutes

42 · G. Lobos

15 · R. Loaiza

35 · R. De Jesús

23 · R. Carrera

38 · B. Acosta

40 · Tomás López

3 · N. Morgantini

1 · F. Petroli

5 · F. Peña

4 · G. Pérez

19 · Y. Valois

8 · F. Watson

Our number · lanus winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
36% The market44%
Us36%
Market44%

We make Lanus a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Banfield v Lanus1.03 – 1.12
Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W5 D1 L0
The market · Lanus win44% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:16
Our probability · Lanus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Banfield win32%26%+6
Draw32%30%+2
Lanus win36%44%−8
Over 2.5 goals36%41%−5
Both teams to score44%47%−3
Over 1.5 goals64%66%−2
Over 3.5 goals17%22%−5
Banfield or draw64%56%+8
Banfield clean sheet33%––
Lanus clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%
0123450 12.9 11.8 7.3 2.7 1 10.9 14.5 7.4 2.8 2 6.2 6.9 3.8 3 2.2 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Banfield down, Lanus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsLAN 1–0 BAN · BAN 2–1 LAN · LAN 1–1 BAN · BAN 0–1 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 5 Sept

BANFIELD

LDDDWL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

LANUS

WWWDWW1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0