Banfield v Argentinos JRS prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Banfield 0–1 Argentinos JRS ARGENTINOS JRS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentinos JRS win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentinos JRS win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Argentinos JRS 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 29–32–39
1′KICK-OFF Banfield v Argentinos JRS
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Argentinos JRS win 34%)
40′A goal for Argentinos JRS on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Banfield 0–1 Argentinos JRS
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Argentinos JRS win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
41′Argentinos JRS have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–44–31
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Argentinos JRS
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Argentinos JRS win 31%)
43′Argentinos JRS have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–45–31
45′HALF-TIME Banfield 0–0 Argentinos JRS
46′SECOND HALF Banfield 0–0 Argentinos JRS
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
53′We said Argentinos JRS at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 22–51–27
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Gastón Verón · Argentinos JRS
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Argentinos JRS · On: Matías Giménez · Off: Tomas Molina
61′We said Argentinos JRS at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Franco Paredes · Argentinos JRS
66′We said Argentinos JRS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 2–15–83
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Banfield 0–1 Argentinos JRS
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 83% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Argentinos JRS win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
67′Matías Giménez scores for Argentinos JRS on 66′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–84
71′We said Argentinos JRS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Banfield · On: Lisandro Geronimo Piñero · Off: David Zalazar
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Banfield · On: Matías Hernández · Off: Lautaro Martín Gómez
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
79′We said Argentinos JRS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Francisco Fabián Álvarez · Argentinos JRS
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Banfield · On: Santiago López García · Off: Federico Medina
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Banfield · On: Ignacio Pais Mayán · Off: Juan Luis Alfaro
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Argentinos JRS · On: Kevin Coronel · Off: Gastón Verón
85′We said Argentinos JRS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Banfield · On: Federico Anselmo · Off: Santiago Esquivel
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Argentinos JRS · On: Erik Godoy · Off: Facundo Carrizo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Argentinos JRS · On: Facundo Valentín Jainikoski · Off: Diego Rodrigo Porcel
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Sebastián Prieto · Argentinos JRS
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Ignacio Pais Mayán · Banfield
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Argentinos JRS win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Banfield 0–1 Argentinos JRS
FTBanfield 0–1 Argentinos JRS · Argentinos JRS win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentinos JRS are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Banfield 29%, draw 32%, Argentinos JRS 39%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Banfield v Argentinos JRSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Banfield win29%

Draw32%

Argentinos JRS win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Florencio Sola

RefereeSebastian Zunino

Line-ups

Banfield

4-3-3

Argentinos JRS

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Banfield

Argentinos JRS

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Argentinos JRS	12	+5	22
11	Banfield	12	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Banfield

4-3-3

50 D. Rodriguez

4 J. L. Alfaro

2 S. Daniele

6 N. Meriano

27 I. Abraham

10 L. Gomez

5 S. Esquivel

20 T. Adoryan

18 F. Medina

9 A. Balboa

40 D. Zalazar

Coach · Pedro Troglio

Substitutes

25 · G. Santilli

3 · N. Paz

19 · L. Cano

37 · R. Malanca

13 · B. Oviedo

21 · L. Villegas

24 · S. Lopez

35 · N. Pais

30 · F. Anselmo

77 · T. Rodriguez

28 · M. Hernandez

7 · L. Pinero

Argentinos JRS

4-3-3

25 B. Cortes

17 F. Paredes

16 F. Alvarez

6 F. Vazquez

20 S. Prieto

5 F. Carrizo

15 K. Gutierrez

11 N. Oroz

7 D. Porcel

9 G. Veron

27 T. Molina

Coach · Nicolas Diez

Substitutes

12 · G. Siri Payer

26 · C. Bravo

4 · E. Godoy

22 · K. Coronel

23 · M. Mendoza

32 · G. Infantino

10 · G. Florentin

8 · H. Lopez

28 · J. Gho

35 · A. Alcaraz

19 · M. Gimenez

48 · F. Jainikoski

Our number · argentinos jrs winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Argentinos JRS a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Banfield v Argentinos JRS~~0.94 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 22~~11 v 3

~~The market · Argentinos JRS win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Argentinos JRS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banfield win	29%	25%	+4
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Argentinos JRS win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	34%	46%	−12
Both teams to score	42%	51%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	62%	70%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	16%	26%	−10
Banfield or draw	61%	54%	+7
Banfield clean sheet	32%	–	–
Argentinos JRS clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.8 13.1 8.0 3.1 1 10.7 14.4 7.5 2.9 2 5.6 6.3 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banfield down, Argentinos JRS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,785 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Banfield at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Argentinos JRS away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Banfield, 1.13 for Argentinos JRS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARG 3–2 BAN · ARG 3–0 BAN · BAN 1–2 ARG · ARG 1–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 30 Aug

BANFIELD

LLDDDW2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

ARGENTINOS JRS

WDDLWD2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	12	+8	22
2	Belgrano Cordoba	12	+7	22
3	Argentinos JRS	12	+5	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	+1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	12	+3	20
6	Huracan	13	0	19
7	Barracas Central	12	+1	18
8	Independ. Rivadavia	12	−4	18
9	River Plate	12	+2	17
10	Atletico Tucuman	12	0	14
11	Banfield	12	−4	13
12	Tigre	12	−2	12
13	Racing Club	12	−6	11
14	Aldosivi	12	−7	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	12	−10	6