Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rosario Central win at 37%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Rosario Central was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 31–32–37
3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central
4. 5′Rosario Central ahead on 3′ through Gaston Avila. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 3' Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Rosario Central · Gaston Avila (assist Ángel Di María)
6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
7. 6′We published Rosario Central at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 11–19–69
8. 7′We published Rosario Central at 37%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
9. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Atletico Tucuman 0–2 Rosario Central
10. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 89% now
11. 8′Gaston Avila scores for Rosario Central on 6′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
12. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' César Leonel Vega · Atletico Tucuman
13. 15′We published Rosario Central at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
14. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Vicente Pizarro · Rosario Central
15. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Álan Rodríguez · Rosario Central
16. 37′We published Rosario Central at 37%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–2 · 7–20–73
17. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Rosario Central
18. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 73% now
19. 38′37′: Pedro Alexis Canelo on the scoresheet for Atletico Tucuman, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–73
20. 38′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–20–73
21. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Leonel Di Plácido · Atletico Tucuman
22. 40′9 shots for Atletico Tucuman, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–74
23. 44′Atletico Tucuman level it on 42′ through Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez. 2–2. 2–2 · 26–45–29
24. 44′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atletico Tucuman 2–2 Rosario Central · Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez (assist Leandro Díaz)
25. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
26. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Rosario Central win 29%)
27. 45′HALF-TIME Atletico Tucuman 2–2 Rosario Central
28. 46′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 25–46–29
29. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Tucuman · On: Ezequiel Ham · Off: Leandro Díaz Corrected
30. 48′SECOND HALF Atletico Tucuman 2–2 Rosario Central
31. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
32. 53′Atletico Tucuman have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 23–50–26
33. 58′We said Rosario Central at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 21–54–24
34. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Tucuman · On: Ezequiel Ham · Off: César Leonel Vega
35. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Leandro Díaz · Atletico Tucuman
36. 68′We said Rosario Central at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 17–64–19
37. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Giovanni Ismael Cantizano · Rosario Central
38. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
39. 76′We said Rosario Central at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 12–74–14
40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atletico Tucuman · On: Ignacio Galvan · Off: Pedro Alexis Canelo
41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atletico Tucuman · On: Maximiliano Villa · Off: Leonel Di Plácido
42. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rosario Central · On: Julian Fernandez · Off: Giovanni Ismael Cantizano
43. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rosario Central · On: Marco Ruben · Off: Enzo Copetti
44. 81′Julian Fernandez scores for Rosario Central on 80′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–91
45. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Atletico Tucuman 2–3 Rosario Central · Julian Fernandez
46. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 91% now
47. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Rosario Central win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
48. 82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–7–92
49. 86′We published Rosario Central at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
50. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rosario Central · On: Facundo Mallo · Off: Emanuel Coronel
51. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Tucuman · On: Nicolás Laméndola · Off: Franco Nicola
52. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Tucuman · On: Iván Tesuri · Off: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez
53. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Rosario Central win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
54. FTFULL TIME Atletico Tucuman 2–3 Rosario Central
55. FTAtletico Tucuman 2–3 Rosario Central · Rosario Central win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.