Argentinos JRS v Independ. Rivadavia prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Argentinos JRSDrawIndepend. Rivadavia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Argentinos JRS 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentinos JRS are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Argentinos JRS 48%, draw 30%, Independ. Rivadavia 22%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Argentinos JRS v Independ. RivadaviaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Argentinos JRS win48%

Draw30%

Independ. Rivadavia win22%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueDiego Armando Maradona

RefereeD. Herrera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Argentinos JRS

Independ. Rivadavia

10Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · argentinos jrs winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market44%

Us48%

~~Market~~44%

We make Argentinos JRS a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Argentinos JRS v Independ. Rivadavia~~1.37 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 19~~2 v 9

~~The market · Argentinos JRS win~~44% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Argentinos JRS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Argentinos JRS win	48%	44%	+4
Draw	30%	30%	0
Independ. Rivadavia win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Argentinos JRS or draw	78%	74%	+4
Argentinos JRS clean sheet	43%	–	–
Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 12.1 8.2 4.0 1 13.7 13.6 5.4 2 10.1 8.5 3.7 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Argentinos JRS down, Independ. Rivadavia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,804 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.7% of games this season, across 456 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Argentinos JRS at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Independ. Rivadavia away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Argentinos JRS, 0.85 for Independ. Rivadavia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~IND 3–1 ARG · IND 2–2 ARG · IND 2–1 ARG · ARG 0–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 6 Sept

ARGENTINOS JRS

DDLWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA

LWWDLD1–3 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	14	+11	28
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	14	−2	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	0	17
11	Banfield	14	−5	14
12	Tigre	14	−3	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8