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Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin

Aldosivi

1–3Full time

Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Jose Maria Minella

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00

Aldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin ALDOSIVI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aldosivi win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aldosivi win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aldosivi 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin
2′Little has changed for our model: Aldosivi 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–33
3′Little has changed for our model: Aldosivi 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
17′Sarmiento Junin ahead on 18′ through Junior Marabel. 0–0. 0–0 · 36–33–31
17′We said Aldosivi at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Aldosivi 0–0 Sarmiento Junin · Junior Marabel
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Aldosivi 0–1 Sarmiento Junin · Junior Marabel
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Aldosivi win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Sarmiento Junin win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Aldosivi win 13%)
19′Lucas Castro scores for Aldosivi on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
19′⚽ GOAL · 20' Aldosivi 0–1 Sarmiento Junin · Lucas Castro
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Aldosivi 1–1 Sarmiento Junin · Lucas Castro
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Aldosivi win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Nicolas Zalazar · Aldosivi
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Leonardo Sigali · Aldosivi
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Javier Esteban Sanguinetti · Aldosivi
31′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Aldosivi · On: Santiago Moya · Off: Rodrigo González
31′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Mauricio Martínez · Sarmiento Junin
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sarmiento Junin win 29%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Lucas·Suarez · Sarmiento Junin
45′SECOND HALF Aldosivi 1–1 Sarmiento Junin
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Lucas Castro · Aldosivi
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Lucas Castro · Aldosivi
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Ulises Adrian Gimenez · Sarmiento Junin
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sarmiento Junin · On: Santiago Salle · Off: Ulises Adrian Gimenez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sarmiento Junin · On: Manuel García · Off: Elián Giménez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sarmiento Junin · On: Gaston Gonzalez · Off: Jhon Rentería
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Aldosivi · On: Andrés Chávez · Off: Nicolás Cordero
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sarmiento Junin · On: Jonathan Herrera · Off: Mauricio Martínez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sarmiento Junin · On: Pablo Daniel Magnin · Off: Junior Marabel
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aldosivi · On: Bautista Dadín · Off: Nicolás Gaitán
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Tomás Fernández · Aldosivi
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Martín García · Aldosivi
84′⚽ GOAL · 86' Aldosivi 1–1 Sarmiento Junin · Julian Mavilla
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Aldosivi 1–2 Sarmiento Junin · Julian Mavilla
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Aldosivi 1–2 Sarmiento Junin · Jonathan Herrera
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Aldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin · Jonathan Herrera
FTFULL TIME Aldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin
FTAldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin · Aldosivi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aldosivi win37%

Draw31%

Sarmiento Junin win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

Venue · Estadio Jose Maria Minella

Referee · Luis Lobo Medina

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Aldosivi

4-4-1-1

23 I. Chicco

4 R. Gonzalez

2 L. Sigali

33 N. Zalazar

13 B. Cufre

10 N. Gaitan

5 N. Linares

19 L. Castro

11 A. Palavecino

8 M. Garcia

9 N. Cordero

Coach · Javier Sanguinetti

Substitutes

41 · K. Baez

25 · N. Breitenbruch

28 · S. Moya

17 · F. Laurelli

15 · F. Perruzzi

18 · A. Chavez

21 · M. Godoy

27 · T. Fernandez

16 · B. Dadin

7 · N. Guzman

24 · F. Anso

Sarmiento Junin

4-3-3

12 T. Ayala

20 U. Gimenez

44 R. Orihuela

2 J. Insaurralde

3 L. Suarez

23 E. Gimenez

15 C. Zabala

16 M. Martinez

10 J. Renteria

27 J. Marabel

21 J. Mavilla

Coach · Facundo Sava

Substitutes

1 · I. Arboleda

77 · N. Pasquini

6 · G. Arturia

33 · G. Diaz

29 · T. Santamaria

17 · A. Nadruz

5 · M. Garcia

7 · P. Magnin

8 · S. Salle

24 · J. Herrera

11 · G. Gonzalez

19 · J. Contrera

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aldosivi

4-4-1-1

23 I. Chicco

4 R. Gonzalez

2 L. Sigali

33 N. Zalazar

13 B. Cufre

10 N. Gaitan

5 N. Linares

19 L. Castro

11 A. Palavecino

8 M. Garcia

9 N. Cordero

Coach · Javier Sanguinetti

Substitutes

41 · K. Baez

25 · N. Breitenbruch

28 · S. Moya

17 · F. Laurelli

15 · F. Perruzzi

18 · A. Chavez

21 · M. Godoy

27 · T. Fernandez

16 · B. Dadin

7 · N. Guzman

24 · F. Anso

Sarmiento Junin

4-3-3

12 T. Ayala

20 U. Gimenez

44 R. Orihuela

2 J. Insaurralde

3 L. Suarez

23 E. Gimenez

15 C. Zabala

16 M. Martinez

10 J. Renteria

27 J. Marabel

21 J. Mavilla

Coach · Facundo Sava

Substitutes

1 · I. Arboleda

77 · N. Pasquini

6 · G. Arturia

33 · G. Diaz

29 · T. Santamaria

17 · A. Nadruz

5 · M. Garcia

7 · P. Magnin

8 · S. Salle

24 · J. Herrera

11 · G. Gonzalez

19 · J. Contrera

Our number · aldosivi winPublished 9 Oct 18:34

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Aldosivi a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aldosivi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aldosivi win	37%	37%	0
Draw	31%	31%	+1
Sarmiento Junin win	32%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	21%	−3
Aldosivi or draw	68%	68%	+1
Aldosivi clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 12.5 10.5 6.1 2.1 1 11.7 14.4 6.9 2.4 2 7.4 7.6 3.9 3 2.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aldosivi down, Sarmiento Junin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,767 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 419 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aldosivi at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sarmiento Junin away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Aldosivi, 1.04 for Sarmiento Junin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAR 2–0 ALD · SAR 2–0 ALD · ALD 2–2 SAR · ALD 1–2 SAR

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina

ALDOSIVI

LLWLWL1–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 0–1

SARMIENTO JUNIN

WWLWDL2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Belgrano Cordoba	31	+13	55
2	Argentinos JRS	30	+11	55
3	Independ. Rivadavia	28	+14	52
4	Boca Juniors	28	+19	51
5	Rosario Central	30	+8	51
6	River Plate	30	+13	49
7	Velez Sarsfield	28	+11	49
8	Gimnasia L.P.	29	−1	47
9	Instituto Cordoba	27	+9	46
10	Estudiantes L.P.	28	+13	44
11	Huracan	29	+7	43
12	Lanus	28	+5	41
13	Independiente	28	+1	41
14	Defensa Y Justicia	27	+2	40
15	Union Santa Fe	29	+1	37
16	Racing Club	29	−1	36
17	Barracas Central	27	−1	36
18	Gimnasia M.	27	−6	36
19	Sarmiento Junin	26	−6	35
20	Talleres Cordoba	28	−4	34
21	San Lorenzo	28	−7	34
22	Tigre	27	+2	32
23	Newells Old Boys	27	−9	32
24	Banfield	27	−7	28
25	Atletico Tucuman	27	−5	27
26	Platense	27	−11	26
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	27	−16	25
28	Deportivo Riestra	27	−9	22
29	Aldosivi	27	−18	16
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	27	−28	11