Aldosivi v Belgrano Cordoba prediction · Liga Profesional Argentina

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AldosiviDrawBelgrano Cordoba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Belgrano Cordoba 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Belgrano Cordoba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aldosivi 29%, draw 32%, Belgrano Cordoba 39%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Aldosivi v Belgrano CordobaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aldosivi win29%

Draw32%

Belgrano Cordoba win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:45

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Jose Maria Minella

RefereeSebastian Zunino

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aldosivi

Belgrano Cordoba

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · belgrano cordoba winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 03:05 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Belgrano Cordoba a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aldosivi v Belgrano Cordoba~~0.94 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 22~~15 v 4

~~The market · Belgrano Cordoba win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Belgrano Cordoba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aldosivi win	29%	24%	+5
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Belgrano Cordoba win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Aldosivi or draw	61%	54%	+7
Aldosivi clean sheet	32%	–	–
Belgrano Cordoba clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.6 13.0 8.2 3.2 1 10.5 14.4 7.6 3.0 2 5.5 6.2 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aldosivi down, Belgrano Cordoba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,800 Liga Profesional Argentina matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Profesional Argentina matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 452 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aldosivi at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Belgrano Cordoba away: 1.00 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Aldosivi, 1.15 for Belgrano Cordoba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BEL 1–0 ALD · ALD 0–0 BEL · BEL 2–0 ALD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Profesional Argentina this season · since 4 Sept

ALDOSIVI

WLWLLL3–1 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

BELGRANO CORDOBA

DDWWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Clausura - Group B

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rosario Central	13	+9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	+6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	+3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	+4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	+1	21
6	River Plate	13	+5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	+1	19
8	Huracan	13	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	−4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	0	17
11	Tigre	14	−3	13
12	Banfield	13	−5	13
13	Racing Club	13	−6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	−9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	−8	8