Potters Tigers v Aston Villa prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:28

Potters Tigers 3–2 Aston Villa ASTON VILLA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Potters Tigers 30%, draw 17%, Aston Villa 53%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Potters Tigers v Aston VillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 10:04 · locked at kick-off

Potters Tigers win30%

Draw17%

Aston Villa win53%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Potters Tigers

Aston Villa

4Days since last match174

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier Division (Antigua And Barbuda)

Last match: 27 Apr · Premier Division (Antigua And Barbuda)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Aston Villa latest: Jackson claims Botman 'nearly broke my leg' after avoiding red cardSky Sports · 17 Oct 20:45 · Aston Villa

Manzambi haunts Newcastle with winner for Aston VillaSky Sports · 17 Oct 20:30 · Aston Villa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aston villa winFirst published 17 Oct 10:04 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Aston Villa a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Potters Tigers v Aston Villa~~1.98 – 2.64

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Potters Tigers win	30%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Aston Villa win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Potters Tigers or draw	47%	–	–
Potters Tigers clean sheet	8%	–	–
Aston Villa clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.7%

0123450 3.3 3.6 3.1 2.1 1 2.6 5.0 6.7 5.7 3.8 2.12 2.1 5.1 6.3 5.4 3.6 3 3.3 4.1 3.5 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Potters Tigers down, Aston Villa across0–5 goals a side shown (91.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 402 Premier Division matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 6.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Potters Tigers at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aston Villa away: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Potters Tigers, 2.64 for Aston Villa. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~6.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–5 POT · AST 4–2 POT · POT 1–6 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 13 Oct

POTTERS TIGERS

W4–1

ASTON VILLA

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potters Tigers	1	+3	3
2	Grenades	1	+3	3
3	Garden Stars	1	+1	3
4	Hoppers	1	+1	3
5	All Saints United	1	−1	0
6	Pigotts Bullets	1	−1	0
7	Old Road	1	−3	0
8	Freemansville	1	−3	0