Old Road v Pigotts Bullets prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:30

Old Road 0–3 Pigotts Bullets OLD ROAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Old Road win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Old Road are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Old Road 50%, draw 20%, Pigotts Bullets 31%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Old Road v Pigotts BulletsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 16:34 · locked at kick-off

Old Road win50%

Draw20%

Pigotts Bullets win31%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Old Road

Pigotts Bullets

5Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier Division (Antigua And Barbuda)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier Division (Antigua And Barbuda)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Pigotts Bullets	1	−1	0
8	Old Road	1	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · old road winFirst published 17 Oct 16:34 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Old Road a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Old Road v Pigotts Bullets~~2.12 – 1.61

~~Form · Premier Division this season · since 11 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Old Road win	50%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Pigotts Bullets win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Old Road or draw	69%	–	–
Old Road clean sheet	21%	–	–
Pigotts Bullets clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 4.7 3.2 1 5.9 7.6 6.4 3.5 2 5.4 8.3 6.6 3.6 3 3.8 5.8 4.6 2.5 4 2.1 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Old Road down, Pigotts Bullets across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 403 Premier Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Old Road at home: 6.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pigotts Bullets away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Old Road, 1.61 for Pigotts Bullets. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PIG 0–0 OLD · OLD 2–1 PIG · OLD 0–3 PIG · PIG 2–5 OLD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier Division this season · since 11 Oct

OLD ROAD

L1–4

PIGOTTS BULLETS

L1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potters Tigers	2	+4	6
2	Grenades	1	+3	3
3	Garden Stars	1	+1	3
4	Hoppers	1	+1	3
5	Aston Villa	1	−1	0
6	All Saints United	1	−1	0
7	Pigotts Bullets	1	−1	0
8	Old Road	1	−3	0
9	Freemansville	1	−3	0