Wiliete v São Salvador prediction · Girabola

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WilieteDrawSão Salvador

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Wiliete 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wiliete are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wiliete 61%, draw 25%, São Salvador 14%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Wiliete v São SalvadorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Wiliete win61%

Draw25%

São Salvador win14%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wiliete

São Salvador

5Days since last match10

Last match: 23 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Girabola

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiliete winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Wiliete a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wiliete v São Salvador~~1.71 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiliete win	61%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
São Salvador win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Wiliete or draw	86%	–	–
Wiliete clean sheet	51%	–	–
São Salvador clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.3 5.4 2.1 1 14.8 11.5 3.6 2 13.3 8.9 3.0 3 7.6 5.1 4 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiliete down, São Salvador across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Girabola matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wiliete at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). São Salvador away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Wiliete, 0.68 for São Salvador. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIL 1–0 SAO · SAO 1–2 WIL · WIL 2–1 SAO · SAO 0–0 WIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 23 Aug

WILIETE

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–1

SÃO SALVADOR

LWLDDW1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	+3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	+2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
9	São Salvador	7	−2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	−3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	−6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	−9	3