Sporting de Cabinda v Académica do Lobito prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Sporting de Cabinda 0–0 Académica do Lobito SPORTING DE CABINDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sporting de Cabinda win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting de Cabinda win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting de Cabinda was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–34–31
1′KICK-OFF Sporting de Cabinda v Académica do Lobito
5′Much as we predicted: Sporting de Cabinda was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–34–30
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sporting de Cabinda win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Sporting de Cabinda 0–0 Académica do Lobito
46′SECOND HALF Sporting de Cabinda 0–0 Académica do Lobito
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Sporting de Cabinda win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
54′We said Sporting de Cabinda at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
65′We said Sporting de Cabinda at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sporting de Cabinda win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
74′We said Sporting de Cabinda at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
81′We said Sporting de Cabinda at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sporting de Cabinda win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
88′We said Sporting de Cabinda at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Sporting de Cabinda 0–0 Académica do Lobito
FTSporting de Cabinda 0–0 Académica do Lobito · Sporting de Cabinda win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sporting de Cabinda just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting de Cabinda 36%, draw 33%, Académica do Lobito 31%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Sporting de Cabinda v Académica do LobitoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting de Cabinda win36%

Draw33%

Académica do Lobito win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting de Cabinda

Académica do Lobito

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Girabola

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	−5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting de cabinda winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Sporting de Cabinda a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting de Cabinda v Académica do Lobito~~1.01 – 0.91

~~Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting de Cabinda win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting de Cabinda win	36%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Académica do Lobito win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Sporting de Cabinda or draw	69%	–	–
Sporting de Cabinda clean sheet	40%	–	–
Académica do Lobito clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 12.4 6.2 1 13.7 14.2 6.0 2 7.5 6.6 3.0 3 2.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting de Cabinda down, Académica do Lobito across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,187 Girabola matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting de Cabinda at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Académica do Lobito away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Sporting de Cabinda, 0.91 for Académica do Lobito. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 ACA · SPO 1–0 ACA · ACA 3–0 SPO · SPO 1–1 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug

SPORTING DE CABINDA

LLLDDD0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

ACADÉMICA DO LOBITO

LLLLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
4	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	+5	13
5	Interclube	6	+2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	−4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	−1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	−1	6
11	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	−5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	−9	1