São Salvador v 1º de Maio prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

São Salvador 2–1 1º de Maio SÃO SALVADOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said São Salvador win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

São Salvador are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: São Salvador 45%, draw 32%, 1º de Maio 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on São Salvador v 1º de MaioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

São Salvador win45%

Draw32%

1º de Maio win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

São Salvador

1º de Maio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Girabola

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · são salvador winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make São Salvador a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · São Salvador v 1º de Maio~~1.24 – 0.82

~~Form · Girabola this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
São Salvador win	45%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
1º de Maio win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
São Salvador or draw	76%	–	–
São Salvador clean sheet	45%	–	–
1º de Maio clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.2 9.5 4.3 1 14.8 13.8 5.2 2 9.7 7.8 3.2 3 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+São Salvador down, 1º de Maio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 Girabola matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

São Salvador at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). 1º de Maio away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for São Salvador, 0.82 for 1º de Maio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAO 3–2 ODE · ODE 1–0 SAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Girabola this season · since 23 Aug

SÃO SALVADOR

LLWLDD0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

1º DE MAIO

DLWLWD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
10	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
11	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
12	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2