Sagrada Esperança v Recreativo da Caála prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Sagrada Esperança 1–1 Recreativo da Caála SAGRADA ESPERANÇA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sagrada Esperança win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.739

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sagrada Esperança are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagrada Esperança 47%, draw 31%, Recreativo da Caála 22%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Sagrada Esperança v Recreativo da CaálaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sagrada Esperança win47%

Draw31%

Recreativo da Caála win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagrada Esperança

Recreativo da Caála

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 9 Oct · Girabola

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagrada esperança winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Sagrada Esperança a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagrada Esperança v Recreativo da Caála~~1.26 – 0.78

~~Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~9 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagrada Esperança win	47%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Recreativo da Caála win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança or draw	78%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança clean sheet	46%	–	–
Recreativo da Caála clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 14.4 9.2 4.0 1 15.3 13.4 4.9 2 10.2 7.8 3.1 3 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagrada Esperança down, Recreativo da Caála across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,187 Girabola matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagrada Esperança at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Recreativo da Caála away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Sagrada Esperança, 0.78 for Recreativo da Caála. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAG 1–1 REC · REC 0–0 SAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug

SAGRADA ESPERANÇA

LWLWD0–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

RECREATIVO DA CAÁLA

DLWLLD0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
4	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	+5	13
5	Interclube	6	+2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	−4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	−1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	−1	6
11	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	−5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	−9	1