Sagrada Esperança v 1º de Maio prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Sagrada Esperança 3–0 1º de Maio SAGRADA ESPERANÇA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sagrada Esperança win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sagrada Esperança are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagrada Esperança 54%, draw 27%, 1º de Maio 19%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sagrada Esperança v 1º de MaioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sagrada Esperança win54%

Draw27%

1º de Maio win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagrada Esperança

1º de Maio

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 18 Oct · Girabola

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
10	1º de Maio	7	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagrada esperança winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Sagrada Esperança a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagrada Esperança v 1º de Maio~~1.57 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagrada Esperança win	54%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
1º de Maio win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança or draw	81%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança clean sheet	45%	–	–
1º de Maio clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 6.7 3.2 1 13.4 12.5 4.8 2 11.2 8.9 3.7 3 6.0 4.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagrada Esperança down, 1º de Maio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Girabola matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagrada Esperança at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). 1º de Maio away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Sagrada Esperança, 0.82 for 1º de Maio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAG 1–1 ODE · ODE 2–1 SAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 22 Aug

SAGRADA ESPERANÇA

LWLWDD0–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

1º DE MAIO

LWLWDL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	+3	13
7	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
8	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
9	São Salvador	7	−2	8
10	1º de Maio	7	0	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
14	FC Luanda	7	−6	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2